The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is set for Monday, May 12, with most of the basketball world ready to find out which team has the clear path to selecting Duke star Cooper Flagg with the No. 1 overall pick. For the Atlanta Hawks, that is not the consideration, however, as the Hawks do not have a pathway to the top overall selection. Instead, Atlanta will enter the 2025 draft with the No. 22 pick and, before the lottery, the Hawks have more than a 96 percent chance to garner a pick (via Sacramento) at No. 13 or No. 14 overall.
By the specific numbers, the Hawks have a 92.9 percent chance to pick at No. 13 and a 3.3 percent chance to pick at No. 14, leaving less than a four percent chance to "lose" the pick to the Kings. That is because the pick owed to Atlanta from Sacramento is top-12 protected, and the Kings have the small bit of hope to jump into the top four on Monday.
At any rate, the mock draft industrial complex has weighed in with some pre-lottery projections for the Hawks, including a very popular choice at No. 22 overall.
No. 13 pick
The Ringer — Rasheer Fleming, F, St. Joseph's — J. Kyle Mann describes Fleming as "a 6-foot-9 defensive demon who creates live-ball disruption without racking up careless fouls and also manages to shoot 39 percent from 3." The theory with Fleming at this pretty lofty juncture would be his two-way appeal as a role player who doesn't take much off the table.
CBS Sports — Walter Clayton Jr., G, Florida — Adam Finkelstein writes that Clayton Jr. is "an extreme shot-maker and quality scorer, solid defender, and now has on-off ball versatility." The Florida guard had a monster season for the national champs, though he could be more of a third guard at the NBA level.
Tankathon — Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina — Murray-Boyles was an All-SEC selection this season, even while playing on a struggling South Carolina team. He was the sun, moon, and stars for the Gamecocks, averaging 16.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game while operating at an elite defensive level. He is a bit of a "tweener" positionally, but some NBA teams are enthralled by his defensive potential and versatility.
Bleacher Report — Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina — As noted above, Murray-Boyles is a tremendous and versatile defender. The questions arise on offense. Jonathan Wasserman notes that Murray-Boyles was "one of the toughest one-on-one covers in the SEC, even without a jump shot." Perhaps that brings some optimism, but the lack of shooting (26.5 percent from 3-point range) is potentially a big problem.
No. 22 pick
The Ringer — Nolan Traore, G, Saint-Quentin BB — Traore very likely wouldn't help the Hawks with their backup point guard question in 2025-26, but Danny Chau outlines that he believes the talented guard is "one of the best dice rolls in the class as a primary initiator." That could be appealing if Atlanta wants to take an upside swing after going with a relatively safe pick (Fleming) in this mock.
CBS Sports — Danny Wolf, F/C, Michigan — In Adam Finkelstein's write-up of this pick, he refers to Wolf as a "highly skilled borderline 7-footer who handles and passes well enough that he was Michigan's primary initiator for significant stretches this season." That does encapsulate a great deal of the Danny Wolf experience, and it's a very rare skill set.
Tankathon — Danny Wolf, F/C, Michigan — Wolf's appeal is clear, but he does have clear limitations. He doesn't profile as an "anchor" defensively, and fit will be a concern on that end of the floor. Wolf also isn't as good of a shooter as some may think, making only 33.6 percent of 3-point attempts on fewer than four attempts per game at Michigan. Can the on-ball juice on offense play up in an NBA world to offset the questions? We'll see.
Bleacher Report — Danny Wolf, F/C, Michigan — Wolf is the official winner of the "most popular mock draft projection for the Hawks," at least in a pre-lottery world. This is also the same overall haul (Murray-Boyles and Wolf) that Tankathon projects, and that would be an interesting level of investment in Atlanta's frontcourt to go along with Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Mo Gueye.