Auburn this, Duke that. It's time for folks to pay more attention to the Houston Cougars, who are quietly chugging along as a blatant NCAA title contender hiding in plain sight.
Much has been made of the strength of the SEC this season, but we cannot overlook the other NCAA hotbeds. The Big 12 has seen less success than expected from some of the traditional heavyweights — Kansas, WYD? — but there are still plenty of quality teams in the conference. None better than Houston.
Currently ranked fourth in the AP Top 25 behind Auburn, Duke, and Florida, the Cougars are right in the thick of things for a No. 1 overall seed. How many programs have been more consistently excellent in recent years than Houston under the guidance of Kelvin Sampson? Not many.
There were understandable concerns about how things might look without Jamal Shead in the NBA, but Houston keeps on keeping on. Taking Shead's place as a high-energy source of buckets has been L.J. Cryer, who dropped 28 points on Iowa State in a huge Cougars victory over the weekend.
From the gadgety production of J'Wan Roberts to JoJo Tugler's elastic arms on defense, this Cougars team find a way to get the most out of disparate pieces. Those writing Houston off in March Madness will be sorely disappointed.
Before we get to the NCAA Tournament, however, the Big 12 Tournament is on deck. Houston will be favorites going in, but will the Cougars win the regular season crown and control the No. 1 seed? That depends on a few different things.
Houston clinching scenarios: Cougars battles Arizona for top seed in Big 12
Houston currently sits at 15-1 in conference play, a full three games ahead of second-place Texas Tech and Arizona, who are both 12-4. As fate would have it, the Cougars face Texas Tech on Monday night with a chance to claim (at least a share) of the Big 12 crown.
A Houston victory effectively eliminates the Red Raiders from contention. That would clinch a share of first-place with Arizona, as the Wildcats would still be able to tie Houston in the Big 12 standings with four straight wins to end the regular season (and three straight Cougars losses, which seems... improbable).
A win over Texas Tech, followed by an Arizona loss at any point over the next couple weeks, would clinch the regular season Big 12 crown outright for the Cougars. If Houston wins at least two of its last four games, that would also secure the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. Sampson's team effectively controls its own destiny.
It would require a collapse of biblical proportions for Houston to not win the Big 12's regular season crown at this point. Crazier things have happened, but this is a deep and scrappy Cougars squad, so it's hard to imagine so much going wrong over such a short period of time.
The Cougars are every bit the contender that Auburn and Duke are. Third in KenPom's NetRtg (+35.16), and within less than a point of second-place Auburn, Houston has the analytics on its side. Historically, almost all NCAA Tournament winners are top-20 in both offensive rating and defensive rating on KenPom. The Cougars are seventh and third, respectively. Few teams are more well-rounded and consistent. Houston does not fall asleep at the wheel.
When filling out your brackets in a few weeks, don't forget to show some love to Houston. It might just win your bracket challenge.