Selection Sunday is behind us, the NCAA Tournament field is set and the First Four play in games are right around the corner. March Madness is truly in full force. And the only thing synonymous with March Madness and the NCAA Tournament is upset.
The underdog that only got in because they were one of the 31 conference champions or the team no one's heard about that stuns a powerhouse with a basketball budget bigger than the underdogs entire athletic department budget. Those moments are soon to come.
But as you college basketball junkies get ready to fill out your bracket, I’ve got a tip for you as you anticipate which underdog is good enough to beat their juggernaut counterpart in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Before you run rampant about picking upsets, here’s some data to help you decide which games could be upsets.
How many upsets are there in an average NCAA Tournament bracket?
When it comes to deciding which teams are going to upset who, here’s a few things to consider. Since 1985, there's been about 8.5 upsets on average in the NCAA Tournament, per NCAA.com.
In terms of the first round of the NCAA Tournament, that number is just about half that at 4.7. That doesn’t mean don’t go more or less. Obviously it varies from year-to-year. The most upsets there’s been in the NCAA Tournament is 14 in both 2021 and 2022. The fewest upsets occurred in 2007 with 3.
There were 10 upsets in 2023 and nine upsets in 2024. So with that in mind, you’d probably be safe choosing between 7-10 total upsets. Most of the upsets you’ll see will occur in the first two rounds anyway.
How should you choose which upsets to pick?
Let’s start by drawing a fine line. For the most part, your 8-9 and 7-10 seed matchups aren’t really upsets. These teams aren’t really separated by much and truthfully could go either way. While it will be an upset by the definition of a lower seed beating a higher seed, these shouldn’t “count” toward your upset total.
Most upsets start at the No. 11 seed and No. 6 seed matchups. This is where the biggest disparity starts to show. According to NCAA data, your 11-6 and 12-5 matchups are the best chance to predict an upset.
Per NCAA.com, the 11 seed has beat a No. 6 seed 39 percent of the time since 1985. A No. 12 seed has won 35 percent of the time over a No. 5 seed. Again these are just first round numbers.
So as you make your brackets keep in mind the most likely upsets occur with a No. 5 or No. 6 seed team losing.