How much do the first CFP rankings really matter? History says not much

We're entering the final month of the college football season and with that comes narrowing conference races and a clearer picture of the contenders for the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

With that comes the College Football Playoff selection committee's first rankings. Because it's the first time we're seeing who the committee has placed where, a lot will be prematurely discerned by the punditry.

However, despite any major discrepancies between the CFP rankings and the AP Top 25 poll, some teams may want to look away from it all.

History is not kind to the team ranked No. 1 in the first CFP list

The Oregon Ducks are the No. 1 team in the first release of the CFP rankings but perhaps they don't want to be there given how volatile that position has been to previous teams.

In eight of the 10 years that the College Football Playoff has been around, the team ranked No. 1 in the first edition of the committee's rankings has not won the national championship. The only two exceptions were Alabama (2020) and Georgia (2021).

So, if history is any indicator right now, Oregon may be in for a critical stumble or two over the next month or so. The Ducks appear to be a lock to appear in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game but it's still entirely possible that either fellow undefeated Indiana or a rematch with Ohio State could derail their national title hopes.

I'll stop short of calling it a curse but teams ranked No. 1 will need to be wary of and prepare for the immense pressure that comes with being a consensus pick at the top.

Oregon has easily winnable games left on its schedule so it will certainly be the Big Ten title game and whichever playoff game(s) it has to participate in that will decide whether this trend continues.