How often does a No. 12 seed beat a No. 5 seed?

The only thing guaranteed in March Madness is chaos. The NCAA Division I men’s basketball tournament provides 68 teams with an opportunity to cut down the nets, but the road to a national championship isn’t necessarily equal. Programs that earned a higher seed will, in theory, have an easier path since they facing lower ranked opponents.

The easier path doesn’t always guarantee success, however. Nearly every year, shocking upsets and magical runs give rise to captivating underdog stories. With seven rounds of 63 games in the single-elimination tournament, games are nearly impossible to predict. 

Despite the best efforts of millions of basketball enthusiasts, there has never been a perfect March Madness bracket. Over the past four years, there were no verifiable brackets that correctly picked the outcome of the first round, which is the easiest round to predict. Typically, there is at least one bracket-busting upset in the opening round. 

How often do No. 12 seeds upset No. 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament?

In particular, No. 12 seeds have found success against No. 5 seeds. There have been 55 first-round upsets by the No. 12 seed since 1985, when the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams. In that span, the No. 12 seeds hold a respectable 55-101 record (.353), per NCAA.

In comparison, No. 13 seeds have a 33-123 record (.212) against No. 4 seeds in the opening round. No. 11 seeds have only won six more first-round games than No. 12 seeds, holding a 61-95 record (.391) record against No. 6 seeds. 

At least one No. 12 seed has advanced to the second round in 33 of the past 39 tournaments. The only exceptions were in 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018 and 2023. All four No. 5 seeds have managed to prevent a first-round upset in six tournaments, but three No. 5 seeds have suffered a first-round loss in three tournaments. In 2019, three No. 12 seeds — Murray State, Oregon and Liberty — advanced to the second round. Three No. 12 seeds also won at least one game during back-to-back tournaments in 2013 and 2014.

NCAA Tournament history: No. 12 upsets over No. 5 since 2014

In 2024, James Madison defeated No. 5 Saint Mary’s and Grand Canyon defeated No. 5 Wisconsin. Both No. 12 teams suffered losses against the No. 4 seed in the second round. No. 12 seeds have won 12 games since 2014. Although No. 12 seeds have won three games in three of the past 12 tournaments, they've also been swept three times during that span.

In 2025, No. 12 McNeese will face No. 5 Clemson, No. 12 UC San Diego will face No. 5 Michigan, No. 12 Colorado State will face No. 5 Memphis and No. 12 Liberty will face No. 5 Oregon.