How T.J. Watt can clinch Defensive Player of the Year in Week 18

In Week 18, the Pittsburgh Steelers' most prominent player has an opportunity to mop up what’s been a messy end to the regular season. At his 2024 zenith, T.J. Watt’s Defensive Player of the Year candidacy was a near lock. However, after going ghost in the last two weeks, Watt is on the verge of finishing as the DPOY runner-up for the third time in his career. His 11.5 sacks and five forced fumbles are the fewest Watt has recorded when playing more than 80 percent of the season. 

His pressure rate of 8.8 percent is the lowest of his career and, a new leader for the league’s second-most prestigious award has emerged. As we approach the final week of the regular season, Denver Broncos corner Patrick Surtain has gained enough momentum to pass Watt, Alex Van Ginkel, and safety Kerby Joseph, among others. For his part, Surtain has picked off four passes, and played lockdown defense against the league’s upper-echelon receivers, holding Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill, and Ja’Marr Chase to 0 yards when targeted.

History doesn't favor Patrick Surtain

College football might be living in a Travis Hunter world, but the NFL coronation for a cornerback as Defensive Player of the Year would defy recent history. The most disruptive force within proximity to the quarterback tends to be recognized as the NFL’s most outstanding defender. Since 2009, Charles Woodson, Troy Polamalu, and Stephon Gilmore are the only defensive backs to be voted the most distinguished defender in the NFL.

In the history of the AP Defensive Player of the Year award, Mel Blount, Deion Sanders, and Gilmore are the only cover corners to earn that accolade. Ironically, Surtain’s blanket coverage against Chase in a Week 17 loss to the Bengals is what triggered the most recent market shift in his direction. Conversely, Watt still has a chance to issue his rebuttal in primetime this weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals explosive offense. 

T.J. Watt excelled against the run

Watt’s peers on the defensive line in DPOY discussions defend the run like mall cops compared to the detective's work he did sniffing out ball carriers. His 39 stops, which PFF recognizes as a play where a defender makes a tackle, and the location of the tackle means the play is a successful one for the defense, is more than what Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Trey Hendrickson, Danielle Hunter, and Chris Jones’ produced individually.  He would have secured his 40th already if he'd had the time to call in a Luigi Mangione tip.

During a season in which multidimensional offenses are wreaking havoc on the ground, it’s not enough to just be a force of nature against the pass. In Week 11, Watt bounced back from being outclassed in a head-to-head against Myles Garrett by wrapping up Joe Burrow twice behind the line of scrimmage, logging five quarterback hits, and forcing a fumble in the first half that shifted the momentum back in Pittsburgh’s favor.

Against runners, Watt was more lethal than the sandworms on Arrakis, which enabled him to temper the hand wringing over his diminishing returns as hellraiser on passing downs. Here are how his peers were graded as run defenders according to the keen observations by Pro Football Focus.

Supercuts of Watt blowing up running plays aren't as sexy, but they matter In Week 6 against Las Vegas, Watt mugged the Raiders running backs  like it was 2 am off the strip. He was a livewire punching out a ball from running back Dylan Laube's possession in the first half, and again at the 1-yard line when he dislodged the pigskin from Ameer Abdullah's arms after leaving the right tackle in his dirt. 

Murphy's Law

What Watt has lacked in a consistent torrent of pressures lately from the left side of formations where he’s being targeted by chip blocks at an obscene rate, he made up for in backbreaking splash plays. Watt was a figurative embodiment of Murphy’s Law for opposing offenses, forcing twice as many fumbles as Myles Garrett and still leads the league in that category. 

Watt ending his season by razing Burrow and depriving the Bengals' SpaceX offense of oxygen might be enough to remind voters that pass-rushing sentries are still the first line of defense for defenses. While Surtain’s shutdown coverage relies on him maintaining anonymity throughout a game. Watt is a Molotov Cocktail, going off at the moment he makes contact with the most protected VIP on the field. 

In a What Have You Done Lately league, Watt’s rolled ankle and relative quietude during Pittsburgh’s three games in 11 days transpired at the worst possible time. Fortunately, Week 18 has presented Watt with a marquee stage, and optimal prey in a desperate Burrow who will be letting it rip in an all-out effort to save their season. A resounding finale, a pair of sacks, or a triumphant splash play could be what pushes Watt back into the driver's seat while the season is speeding toward its end at 80 miles an hour.