College Football Playoff expansion has been so good for the sport because not only does it create even more discussion about college football this late in the season, but it also has allowed for teams like Arizona State to have a legitimate shot at making the tournament. In his second year leading his alma mater, Kenny Dillingham has done the unthinkable: He has the Sun Devils at 10-2.
Right now, the Big 12 Championship Game between Arizona State and the Iowa State Cyclones will be playing for one playoff berth. While both are 10-2 on the season, a third loss would eliminate either from consideration. All signs point to them being seeded as the fifth of five automatic qualifier conference champions. They may be ranked inside of the top 12 anyway, but the loser would be out.
Heading into conference championships, here are the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3)
- Miami Hurricanes (10-2)
- Ole Miss Rebels (9-3)
- South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (10-2)
- Clemson Tigers (9-3)
- BYU Cougars (10-2)
- Missouri Tigers (9-3)
- UNLV Rebels (10-2)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3)
- Syracuse Orange (9-3)
- Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)
- Army Black Knights (10-1)
- Memphis Tigers (10-2)
Based off Tuesday night's rankings, these would be the 12 teams projected to make the playoff now.
- Oregon Ducks (12-0) (Projected Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (11-1) (Projected SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (11-1) (Projected ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (11-1) (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (Projected national independent at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) (Projected SEC runner-up)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Projected Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (Projected SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) (Projected Big 12 champion)
For a little bit more context, these would be the first four teams out of the playoff picture.
- 13. Miami Hurricanes (10-2) (ACC)
- 14. Ole Miss Rebels (9-3) (SEC)
- 15. South Carolina Gamecocks (9-3) (SEC)
- 16. Iowa State Cyclones (10-2) (Projected Big 12 runner-up)
Here is where Arizona State would be seeded if the Sun Devils beat Iowa State to win the Big 12.
Where would Arizona State be seeded if the Sun Devils won the Big 12?
This all comes down to what happens over in the ACC. If the favored SMU Mustangs win the ACC, then they would get the No. 3 seed, Mountain West champion Boise State would get the No. 4 seed and Arizona State would get the last AQ spot, probably seeded No. 12. There is a chance they could be elevated as high as maybe No. 11 in this situation, but are the getting past Alabama with a victory?
Assuming chalk everywhere else, here is what the 12-team playoff field would probably look like.
- Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
- SMU Mustangs (12-1) (ACC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
- Alabama Crimson Tide (9-3) (SEC at-large)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
This is the most likely playoff field. Georgia would not drop for losing to Texas, but Ohio State would go ahead of them and Penn State would drop three spots behind them to No. 8. This would set up several intriguing first-round matchups, including No. 5 Notre Dame hosting No. 12 Arizona State. There are several machinations to be had regarding Arizona State's first-round game.
While the No. 12 seed seems to be the most likely, there is a chance that Arizona State could be seeded as high as No. 4. This would only happen if Clemson upsets SMU in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers may then occupy the No. 12 seed, but could be as high as No. 11 if the Selection Committee wants to honor the head-to-head win over SMU for some reason. Arizona State benefits!
Should Clemson upset SMU, here is what the playoff field could look like to help Arizona State out.
- Oregon Ducks (13-0) (Big Ten champion)
- Texas Longhorns (12-1) (SEC champion)
- Boise State Broncos (12-1) (Mountain West/Group of Five champion)
- Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) (Big 12 champion)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) (National independent at-large)
- Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) (Big Ten at-large)
- Georgia Bulldogs (10-3) (SEC runner-up)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) (Big Ten runner-up)
- Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) (SEC at-large)
- Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) (Big Ten at-large)
- SMU Mustangs (11-2) (ACC runner-up)
- Clemson Tigers (10-3) (ACC champion)
In this scenario, Arizona State would go from being ranked No. 15 in the penultimate playoff rankings to something closer to No. 12, only to be overseeded as the No. 4 to suffice questionable AQ requirements. Either way, Arizona State would await the winner of the first-round game between No. 5 Notre Dame and probably No. 12 Clemson in this situation. It could also be SMU or Alabama as well.
Now that we know where Arizona State could be seeded with a win, let's unpack their first opponents.
Potential first-round College Football Playoff matchups for Arizona State
Assuming chalk, the most likely first-round matchup for Arizona State would be going to South Bend to take on No. 5-seeded Notre Dame as the No. 12. The only other team who could conceivably be No. 5 is Oregon if the Ducks lost to Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game. If I had to add a third potential No. 5 option for the Sun Devils to face, it might be Texas with a close loss to Georgia...
If Arizona State were to get the No. 4 seed because Clemson beat SMU to win the ACC, the Sun Devils would await the winner of the No. 5 vs. No. 12 in the national quarterfinals. Potential matchups in that scenario could include Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oregon, SMU and Texas. I still don't see how Miami can make it in, or how Arizona State could face teams like Georgia or Indiana first.
The most logical first-round matchup would be No. 12 Arizona State going to face No. 5 Notre Dame.