A dominant, Wooden Award-winning campaign from Cooper Flagg established the 18-year-old as the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. He is going to make an NBA team very, very happy in a few months.
That said, there has been a steady hum of speculation that Flagg might return to Duke for a sophomore season. In fact, Flagg outright said he wants to come back. This almost certainly won't happen — it's a bad financial decision with far too much associated risk — but what if it did? What if Flagg bucked all recent trends, cashed a historic NIL check and went back to Duke to team up with another elite Jon Scheyer recruiting class?
It's a fun hypothetical, to be sure. There'd have to be a stubborn appreciation for the gumption it takes to pass up a guaranteed No. 1 selection to stay in school and help your program reach the mountaintop. The Blue Devils with year-two Cooper Flagg are runaway favorites to win the NCAA Tournament in 2026.
But what about the 2026 NBA Draft? Is Flagg still the consensus No. 1 pick when next summer rolls around? He'd still be 19 years old, so age is not a factor. He's only a month older than BYU commit AJ Dybantsa and Kansas commit Darryn Peterson. Flagg would probably put up absurd numbers with a full season of experience under his belt. The college game isn't meant to contain Flagg's blend of skill, athleticism and maturity.
That said, the No. 1 pick battle would be real. The 2026 class is loaded, which is part of the reason Flagg shouldn't — and almost definitely won't — go back to Duke.
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Cooper Flagg would face stiff competition for No. 1 overall pick honors in 2026 NBA Draft
In this hypothetical realm, Flagg probably enters next season as the betting favorite to go No. 1, as he feels destined to dominate the college ranks (even more than he already is) as a sophomore. That said, Flagg would also be returning to a loaded Duke roster. He'd have far more competition for touches, primarily from Cam Boozer, a similarly versatile two-way wing with his own path to No. 1 pick status.
That should be a mutually beneficial partnership, but for NBA Draft purposes, there's a chance they cancel each other out a bit. Boozer, the son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer and a Duke legacy recruit, has noticeable parallels to Flagg. He's a strong, athletic 6-foot-9 wing comfortable scoring at all three levels and creating off of drives. He is also an extremely polished, versatile defender, comfortable inhaling weak-side blocks or switching on the perimeter. His feel and composure as a 17-year-old wing is special. We said all those things about Flagg last season, although Boozer might be even more advanced than 17-year-old Flagg.
Duke will also have five-star recruit Shelton Henderson and four-star recruit Cayden Boozer (Cam's twin brother) taking up airspace. Duke might have the ammo for a historically successful campaign, but how much does Flagg shine compared to this season, when he was the clear alpha? It's a fair question.
Boozer is not Flagg's only competition either. BYU commit AJ Dybantsa has certainly generated the most buzz of 2026 prospects. At 6-foot-9, he's a nuclear athlete on the wing, comfortable spraying shots from all over the floor and firing high-level passes at full speed. He's probably the least polished of the established No. 1 pick candidates, but every NBA team is after athletic shot-making wings.
Meanwhile, it's Kansas commit Darryn Peterson currently leading the pack for No. 1 pick odds. He has been on a heater of late, including a dominant showcase at the McDonald's All-American Game. At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, Peterson is one of the most dynamic shot creators in recent memory. His ability to shift gears and generate advantages with his handle is second to none. Peterson has positional size, an elite first step, incredible body control, and a feathery long-range jumper. The holes in his game are few and far between. When you start hearing names like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Damian Lillard, it's generally a positive sign.
So, yeah, Flagg has a chance to go No. 1 overall. He's a generational talent and he'd still be a freshman in age, if not in experience and poise. But there are several potentially generational prospects on the docket next season, so maybe Flagg should stick it out in 2025 and embark on his NBA journey sooner than later.