Important games Bills fans should keep an eye on during the bye week

Following an emotional and dramatic victory over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills will spend their much-needed bye week hoping that Week 12 of this wild 2024 NFL season brings a few upsets.

Boasting a 9-2 record for the first time since 1992, the Bills don't have much to concern themselves with as it pertains to the AFC East. With a 4.5-game lead over the second-place Miami Dolphins (4-6) and five-game advantages over both the New York Jets (3-8) and New England Patriots (3-8), Buffalo has effectively already locked up a fifth consecutive division title.

So, it's not a matter of if the Bills will make the playoffs. It's simply a matter of which of the top four seeds they'll own on the AFC side of the bracket at season's end.

With their 9-2 mark, the Bills currently hold the No. 2 slot in the overall AFC standings, sitting a half-game back of the Chiefs (No. 1, 9-1), a half-game ahead of the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 3, 8-2), and two games ahead of the AFC South-leading Houston Texans (No. 4, 7-4).

At this point, these are the only three teams the Bills need to be concerned about. The Baltimore Ravens (7-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (7-3), who have a marquee matchup against one another on Monday Night Football, could end up being threats as well. But until either is atop their respective division, Buffalo has nothing to worry about.

So, for now, the Bills have three games to keep a close eye on in Week 12, none of which will likely work in their favor.

The Bills will be hoping for several major upsets during their bye week

If one needs an indicator of just how bad the Week 12 slate looks for Buffalo, look no further than the fact that the three teams they'd like to see win have fewer combined wins than the Bills do themselves, owning a collective record of 7-23.

So, that's obviously not great. But given all the surprises that have occurred this season, you just never know.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

The Steelers will kick off Week 12 on Thursday Night Football with the two-win Cleveland Browns, who've lost two straight after upsetting the Ravens in Week 8.

While the cliche thing to say is that one can throw out the records in a rivalry game, the Browns aren't winning this football game.

The Steelers have won five straight and have only allowed more than 18 points once in that stretch, that coming in their 28-27 win over the Washington Commanders two weeks ago. Cleveland has scored 24 points combined in its last two games.

So, even if Pittsburgh fails to find the end zone again as they did against the Ravens this past week, they'll still likely win this game. And if that happens, the Bills will actually drop down to the No. 3 spot in the AFC standings.

While so much focus has been on them catching the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, not many have looked at Pittsburgh in that regard. If the Steelers beat the Browns, they'll have the same 9-2 record as Buffalo.

Since there's no head-to-head tiebreaker to use, the next one is the best winning percentage in games played within the conference. And that advantage belongs to Pittsburgh, who've only lost once to an AFC opponent, that being the Indianapolis Colts. Their other was to the Dallas Cowboys.

As for the Bills, their two losses were to the Ravens and Texans. So, if the Steelers win, their record against the AFC would be 6-1 (.857) while the Bills sit at 7-2 (.778), thus giving Pittsburgh the edge.

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

For the Bills or Steelers to have any shot at the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs obviously have to lose at least one more game. But that's not happening in Week 12.

To their credit, the Carolina Panthers have won two straight, besting the New Orleans Saints in Week 9 and then getting past the New York Giants in overtime in Munich in Week 10.

But even coming out well-rested off their bye, Bryce Young & Co. aren't beating an angry Chiefs team looking to get back on track after losing to Buffalo. So, even if the Steelers somehow manage to lose to the Browns, the Bills aren't overtaking the Chiefs this week.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

While Buffalo holds a two-game lead on Houston, they still need to be plenty worried about this team as the Texans would win a tiebreaker due to their 23-20 win over the Bills back in Week 5.

So, it would obviously serve Buffalo best if Houston could take another loss or two down the stretch. But yet again, that's not likely to happen this week as the Texans square off against the two-win Tennessee Titans, whose only win since September came in overtime against the Patriots. That's also the only time they've scored more than 17 points in their last six outings.

Coming off an impressive 34-10 victory over the Cowboys, the Texans aren't losing this game.