How likely is Indiana to make the College Football Playoff? Game-by-game predictions for rest of the season
By Austen Bundy
The Indiana Hoosiers were idle in Week 12 but being undefeated meant it could afford to sit back and watch the rest of the conference position itself for the home stretch.
Now, with two massive games remaining, Indiana actually has a bit of wiggle room. ESPN's Playoff Predictor currently gives the team a 97 percent chance of qualifying for the 12-team bracket as things stand.
But let's take a look at the 10-0 Hoosier's last two contests and evaluate their path to the program's first-ever playoff appearance.
What is Indiana's path to the playoff?
There are four total realistic paths for Indiana to take over the next few weeks and it all starts with the Week 13 tilt against Ohio State. The easiest of the paths is to simply win its final two games, then defeat Oregon for the Big Ten title. That earns the Hoosiers the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
Indiana v. Ohio State (Nov. 23)
On the flip side of that coin, the Hoosiers only have a 27 percent chance of upsetting the Buckeyes in Columbus. But that doesn't even remotely end their story. Losing in Week 13 just likely eliminates them from Big Ten title contention due to the head-to-head tiebreaker Ohio State would own, leaving Indiana in third place.
Purdue v. Indiana (Nov. 30)
Regardless if Indiana stumbles against mighty Ohio State, the committee won't punish the Hoosiers harshly for losing its first game of the year in Columbus. Now, that would require them taking care of business against a lowly Purdue team the very next week in a game Indiana has a 98 percent chance of winning.
Again, it won't make the Big Ten title game but still has a 97 percent chance of making the 12-team field as a 7-seed hosting 10-seed Georgia. Fascinatingly, in the wild event Indiana defeats both Ohio State and Purdue but fails to beat Oregon in Indianapolis, the result would be the same. Only in a world where the Hoosiers fall flat in their last two matches would they fail to qualify for the playoff.
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