Slinging folding chairs: How Indiana can get No. 1 seed in College Football Playoff
By John Buhler
This seems almost unthinkable, but there is a chance that we could be living in a world where a school better known for its downtrodden traditional power of a basketball program could be the first No. 1 seed in the expanded College Football Playoff. We did see Mississippi State be the first team ranked No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings way back during the 2014 college season.
Through eight weeks, Indiana is 7-0 overall and 4-0 in conference play. While they have not played anybody who is really good, they did beat the brakes off Nebraska last week in Bloomington. The Hoosiers eliminated the Huskers from playoff consideration with a second loss. This team is scoring at a prolific rate and are playing with house money under new head coach Curt Cignetti. IU is thriving!
I know this sounds absurd, but what if I told you there is a way where Indiana not only makes the playoff, but does so as the Big Ten champion and No. 1 seed? According to ESPN's FPI, Indiana has the eighth-best chance of making the playoff at 63.8 percent. Only nine teams have better than a 50-percent chance heading into Week 9, and Indiana is one of them. How high can this IU team climb?
It all starts with getting a convincing victory at home over a so-so Washington team this weekend.
College Football Playoff: What Indiana has to do to get the No. 1 seed
For my money, there are two ways Indiana can get the No. 1 seed. The first is obvious. It would require Indiana going undefeated during the regular season and then winning the Big Ten Championship Game. This pathway would include wins over Washington, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Purdue, as well as over either Oregon, Penn State or even Illinois in the Big Ten Championship Game.
While I think the SEC champion will end up being the better team in the end, every team in that league has at least one defeat now that Georgia beat Texas. Only LSU and Texas A&M remaining unscathed in league play, and one of them is going down this weekend in College Station. There may be a debate of a 12-1 SEC champion getting the top seed over an undefeated Indiana, but I think they could get it.
The other pathway in for the Hoosiers is to go 11-1 (8-1) this season with a close loss to Ohio State. If the Buckeyes lost to Penn State, it would increase Indiana's chances of getting to Indianapolis. The Hoosiers may need help from either Oregon or Illinois in some fashion of helping them get to the Big Ten title bout. If they beat Ohio State in a rematch, they may go to No. 1, or if they beat an undefeated.
Overall, I think you could make the case for Indiana being No. 1 if the Hoosiers got signature wins over Ohio State in the regular season and over either Oregon, Penn State, or even Illinois in the Big Ten Championship Game. The pathway to No. 1 with a regular-season loss is a tad more tricky, but it is not a mathematical possibility. More importantly, if Indiana gets to 11 wins, they will make it in regardless.
One thing that I think we are overlooking in the playoff picture is 11 wins will get a Big Ten and an SEC team in no matter what. For as frustrating as Missouri has been this year, the Tigers will get in with 11 wins and their blowout loss to Texas A&M. While Indiana may not have a compelling resume, the nature of narrative is on their side, as well as being an 11-win team in either Power Two conference.
Indiana enters this weekend ranked No. 13, but IU may be top-8 if they get to 10-0 before Ohio State.