A one-point loss to the Atlanta Dream notwithstanding, the Indiana Fever have to feel pretty good about their start. They absolutely pounded the Chicago Sky in their opener, coming away with a 35-point win. After splitting two tough, physical games with the Dream, they're sitting at 2-1. Natasha Howard has been a fantastic addition, and Sophie Cunningham looked terrific in her debut.
On top of all that, the Fever currently have the best defense in the WNBA, surrendering just 88.9 points per 100 possessions. That's a dramatic change from last season, when they finished 11th in the league, allowing 107.5 points per 100.
Fixing the defense was a huge focus offseason goal and a key in the Fever's championship aspirations. It's why they went out and added vets like Cunningham, Howard and DeWanna Bonner. But, despite the gaudy numbers so far, there's still a lot of work to do.
The suffocating Fever defense may be a mirage
To be clear, ranking first in the league in defensive efficiency after three games is absolutely a good thing and a positive indicator. But it's not the best indicator of where the Fever actually are right now.
First, their three games against the Sky and the Dream, twice. Both of those teams made some offseason upgrades, but they also ranked 11th and 12th in offensive efficiency last season — so the Fever aren't exactly shutting down the league's best offenses.
They may also be benefitting from a lot of luck so far.
The only one of the Defensive Four Factors (opponent effective field goal percentage, opponent turnover percentage, opponent free-throw rate and opponent offensive rebound rate) in which the Fever rank in the top four is opponent effective field goal percentage, where they lead the league by a decent margin.
The Sky and Dream missed A LOT of shots against the Fever defense. Some of them were tough looks, well defended and forced by sound defensive principles. But plenty of them were wide open looks or easy layups around the rim that bounced out. The Sky and Dream made just 27.9 percent of their 3s against Indiana. Again, these aren't great shooting teams, but those numbers are far worse than you'd expect.
Research has shown that defenses have far more control over how many 3-point shots an opponent takes than the percentage of them that go in. It seems counter-intuitive at first, but if a player is open enough, they'll take a shot and whether it goes in or not has nothing to do with the defense. A well defended perimeter player won't even attempt a 3-pointer because they don't have the space.
So, Fever opponents have been missing a ton of 3s, but they've been taking a ton of them — 28.7 per game, which would have been the most in the league by a wide margin last season. Some of that is the Dream and their new coach, who are dedicated to a run-and-gun style that prioritizes the outside shot. But enough of those are from defensive breakdowns to be concerning. They just don't look as bad because they didn't go in.
The 3-point line isn't the only place the Fever have gotten lucky. The Sky and Dream only hit 73.1 percent of their free throws in these games, well below the league average of 78.5 percent from last year. That's a scenario where the defense has no control and the Fever have benefitted from misses. They also held the Sky and Dream to just 42.6 percent on shots within five feet of the basket — the best defensive mark in that zone last season was held by the Liberty at 55.6 percent.
This isn't to say that the Fever haven't made some progress at the defensive end. Their personnel is better. Their execution is better. And their physicality is better. But it hasn't been nearly as good as the numbers have made it appear so far. At some point, their opponent shooting is going to progress to the mean, and it's going to look like their defense is suddenly struggling.
When that happens, don't overreact. The Fever are a real championship contender, and their defense will probably be their limiting factor in how far they can actually go. They're better than they were a year ago. But they're probably not as bad as they may look against the Liberty on Saturday. Like everything else one week into the season, it's a work in progress.