Is Tarik Skubal worth $425 million? How floated price stacks up to MLB history

If the Detroit Tigers want to keep Tarik Skubal in town for the remainder of his career, the reigning Cy Young Award winner just gave them a path toward getting that done. On an appearance on the Pardon My Take podcast this week, Skubal was pitched a potential 10-year, $425 million deal. His response to that offer was telling.

"That sounds good," Skubal said, before jokingly allowing the hosts to negotiate the contract for him.

Is $425 million the minimum he'd accept? That remains to be seen; that's simply the number he was offered by the hosts, and we still don't know how Skubal actually feels about signing a potential extension. But the Tigers would have to figure his asking price would be around that number, and that raises some very thorny questions GM Scott Harris will have to answer in the near future.

Skubal is the best pitcher on the planet, but $425 million is a very hefty sum. The question of whether that'd be worthwhile is one worth asking, especially when considering how a $425 million deal would stack up compared to some of the richest deals in MLB history.

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Richest contracts in MLB history: Tigers could make Tarik Skubal one of the highest-paid players ever

Here's a list of the richest deals in MLB history, and where Skubal would fit in.

Skubal's 10-year, $425 million deal would be the third-richest in MLB history behind only Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani. Soto got a 15-year, $765 million deal as a 26-year-old position player on a Ted Williams-like trajectory after a massive bidding war between two of the richest teams in the sport. Ohtani got a heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million deal thanks in large part to his two-way capabilities and his ridiculous marketability. Skubal would make substantially more than superstars like Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper and Corey Seager did with their teams.

What makes this price even crazier is that it'd blow other pitching contracts completely out of the water.

Richest pitching contracts in MLB history: $425 million Skubal extension would top the list

A 10-year, $425 million extension would top the list by a wide margin. He'd top the richest pitching contract in MLB history by $100 million while signing up for two fewer years. That'd be ... something. He's the best pitcher on the planet, but a $100 million increase over precedent feels substantial.

But as hefty as this deal would be, Skubal might be worth it. Yamamoto got his contract without even throwing a single pitch in the Majors prior to signing it. The Los Angeles Dodgers took on a massive risk. Skubal, on the other hand, would be signing his deal potentially off the heels of back-to-back Cy Young wins if he inks an extension this offseason. A pair of Cy Youngs on his resume, while also being under 30 years old, would make him insanely valuable. There are risks to keep in mind, though.

Rich pitching contracts come with substantial risks Tigers can't ignore

Just take a look at those five richest contracts for a second. Yamamoto has been as-advertised when healthy, but he was limited to 18 starts in his rookie year. Cole was outstanding for the New York Yankees, but will miss all of this season and likely part of next after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Stephen Strasburg made eight starts across three seasons and had an ERA over 8.00 before hanging up his spikes. Max Fried has been brilliant in his first year in the Bronx, but there are seven more years left and no telling how he'll age as he pushes toward 40. Jacob deGrom already underwent Tommy John surgery after signing with the Texas Rangers.

Skubal has been able to stay healthy the past two seasons, which is awesome. But prior to 2024, he had never made 30 starts and had never thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title due to injuries. Is making a bet on his arm to last for the next decade a smart one?

That can be debated, but the risks cannot — and presumably will not — be ignored.

Should the Tigers give Tarik Skubal dream extension?

Is Skubal worth $425 million? Probably. He'd likely get that on the open market considering how hot the pitching market has been in recent years. Free agents get overpaid, at the end of the day, and big-market teams would do what they have to do to get the best pitcher in the game, who happens to be under 30 years of age, under contract for the remainder of his career. I mean, look at Juan Soto: Who had him making close to $725 million? Whether the Tigers should give him that extension, though, is the $425 million question.

My answer is: I don't know! Look, I believe Skubal is as good as it gets right now. He has ridiculous stuff, strikes out the world, doesn't walk anybody, doesn't allow home runs, gives incredible length and has looked great in October. He's even left-handed! He's the complete package.

It's honestly just really tough to give a pitcher a deal like that. Skubal himself is worthy of being the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history, and contract values will only go up. Still, if one thing goes slightly wrong, he can end up missing 18 months with a serious injury.

A team like the Dodgers can survive a major injury to one of their major investments, but can the Tigers say the same? I mean, Detroit has shied away from making any major investments since the Javier Baez deal backfired. That's a problem. The Tigers need Skubal to remain in the World Series conversation, but they also can't afford to pay him and then have him get hurt and never be the same.

History suggests it's simply not smart to pay him. The injury risks are too great, especially for hard throwers like Skubal. Still, the Tigers need him. I'd say if the Tigers are willing to spend, pay Skubal and surround him with a team that can win sustainably. If not, it's really hard to make the argument that a Skubal extension at that number would be wise.