J.J. McCarthy has doubters to prove wrong before ever taking over Vikings offense

Few NFL teams are faced with a more consequential offseason than the Minnesota Vikings.

Nobody expected 14 wins in their first campaign without Kirk Cousins. Nobody expected Sam Darnold to make the Pro Bowl, reviving his career under the guidance of Kevin O'Connell, NFL Coach of the Year and wunderkind play-caller. It was an unexpected season all around.

That is precisely what makes these coming months so complicated. Minnesota selected J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick a year ago. The plan was simple — to lean on the more experienced Darnold until McCarthy was up to speed. Then the rookie suffered a season-ending ankle injury, leaving Darnold to pick up the pieces. Few could've imagined such a revelatory 17-game stretch from the 27-year-old signal-caller.

In the span of a season, Darnold went from a talented backup to a potential franchise quarterback. He threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, perfectly optimized in Minnesota's pass-happy offense. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson will make you see a quarterback with fresh eyes.

Now a free agent, Darnold is due for a payday. If the Vikings don't lock him up, another team will endorse him as their long-term starter. It's hard to part with a quarterback after such a dominant season, but McCarthy isn't going anywhere, and the 22-year-old continues to earn rave reviews in the organization.

If the Vikings decide to move on from Darnold and invest in their first-round pick, few would blame them. It would, however, put McCarthy in a tough spot.

J.J. McCarthy faces immense pressure if Vikings hand him the keys

Don't let Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix fool you. Winning as a rookie quarterback is extremely difficult in the NFL. Minnesota carries one of the the league's most talented rosters, but expecting McCarthy to step in and win 14 games again is... ill-advised.

McCarthy isn't technically a rookie anymore. He will have two training camps under his belt, not to mention a full season in Minnesota's QB room, learning first-hand from Darnold. That said, he is effectively a first-year quarterback. The Vikings cannot expect McCarthy to dominate out of the gate. He will need to get his feet wet and learn on the fly.

The folks over at ESPN expect the Vikings to take a step back next season, especially if McCarthy takes over the offense. It's only natural, and it drives home the misfortune of their untimely 2024 flameout. Minnesota was right in the thick of the NFL's best division before the wheels fell off in the Wild Card round. Now, the path to a Super Bowl is far murkier.

"[The Vikings] will remain playoff-caliber, but it's tough to replicate a 14-win season when several key free agents are poised to leave and the offense could be breaking in a new quarterback," writes ESPN's Jeremy Fowler.

"Sam Darnold played extremely well in 2024," opines Mike Tennenbaum. "But whether it's him or J.J. McCarthy as the starter in 2025, it will be hard to replicate that kind of quarterback success."

The Vikings are already being written off. If McCarthy comes out and wins 10 games and looks like a competent quarterback, that may be enough to satisfy certain pockets of the NFL fandom. Those in Minnesota, however, would prefer to avoid a step in the wrong direction. Detroit and Green Bay aren't going anywhere. The Bears should look better with Ben Johnson calling the shots. The NFC North is a cutthroat, no-nonsense division. If the Vikings slip even a little bit, it could lead to a substantial slide in the standings.

So, the pressure is on for McCarthy, assuming that is the direction Minnesota ultimately takes. Darnold appears less likely to re-sign by the day. This Vikings regime historically does not invest top draft picks in the quarterback position. McCarthy was the exception, and faith is strong inside the clubhouse. If he does not perform, though, expect a minor meltdown in Minneapolis.