25-under-25: Jalen Williams is on the brink of a star turn

The Oklahoma City Thunder are a popular preseason pick to come out of the Western Conference but, to win a championship, they’ll need someone to step up as the bona fide No. 2 option behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

The most obvious candidate is Jalen Williams. After two impressive seasons to start his career, Williams has fans around the NBA and is an early favorite among sportsbooks to win the Most Improved Player award — and for good reason. This guy just keeps getting better.

As the Ringer’s Michael Pina wrote while predicting an All-NBA season for the 23-year-old forward: 

“Williams is not a perfect player, but sometimes I wonder whether he’s on track to become one. After a remarkable rookie season, everything about his game was noticeably tighter and sharper in year two, from his scoring average and assist rate to his usage percentage and true shooting percentage. J-Dub’s responsibility mushroomed and his efficiency improved, all as the second-leading scorer on a team that finished first in a highly competitive Western Conference. This is extremely not normal.”

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Williams was a borderline All-Star last season, averaging 19.1 points, 4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Drill down into the numbers, and it’s easy to see why so many are predicting a star turn. Here’s a smattering:

• Williams made 42.7 percent of his 3s (ninth in the league)
• He had the second-highest usage rate on a team that won the most games in a competitive Western Conference.
• He ranked in the 87th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball-handler
• He generated points on 61 percent of his drives
• Made 42 percent of his pull-up 3-pointers
• Made nearly half of his mid-range jumpers

The question about Williams’ ceiling is one that will be determined by scale.

• While he was ninth in the league in 3-point shooting percentage, he was 116th in total 3s made (with 103, one fewer than Lonnie Walker IV, who is no longer in the league) because he attempted just 3.4 per game.
• His pick-and-roll and drive volume is closer to Dennis Schroder than SGA
• That 42 percent clip on pull-up 3s came on just 1.3 attempts per game
• Of his 1,355 points on the season, only 110 were generated from isolation plays. (SGA had five times as many.)

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault wants Williams to take more shots, especially from 3-point range, to unlock his and Oklahoma City’s offense, which was very SGA-centric last season.

"With how he shoots it and how he drives it, if he can shoot more threes and force people to go play him a little bit higher it creates more space for his drives and it makes him even more difficult to guard," Daigneault said at media day.

As Jared Dubin wrote recently, Williams is the most likely candidate to assume more offensive creation responsibilities. 

"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is mostly a mid-range assassin when it comes to getting jumpers off the dribble. Everybody else other than Jalen Williams is mostly a catch-and-shoot guy, not really creating for themselves all that often. That’s what makes J-Dub the most likely candidate to add this particular shot to the team’s half-court attack."

But it’s not just a matter of giving Williams the ball more. His limitations were evident in the playoffs, when he was reluctant to shoot 3s and passed out of open looks. 

The preseason has been encouraging. Williams attempted 17 3s in 67 total minutes, or 9.2 per 36 minutes while making them at a 53 percent clip. In a limited sample, his efficiency didn’t drop with more volume.

It’s also fair to wonder how much of his postseason struggles were due to the fact that he’s never been there before. Those were the first 10 playoff games of his career. It’s easy to forget that Gilgeous-Alexander, who played well in the postseason, is already 26 and made the playoffs in three of his first six seasons.

Williams is already exceeding expectations and his ceiling appears to be limitless. That said, the Thunder need someone to emerge as a reliable No. 2 option if they are to take the next step and compete for the championship this season.

Jalen Williams ranked No. 11 on FanSided's 2024-25 25-under-25, ranking the best young players in the NBA. Check out the rest of the list here.