All that's left to round out the rest of the NBA playoff field are two more play-in games, but for most teams, they already know where they'll be and who they'll be facing. Adam Silver must be smiling somewhere in the league office, because the first round of the postseason has some real doozies.
From Knicks vs. Pistons to Nuggets vs. Clippers, from Rockets vs. Warriors to Pacers vs. Bucks, this could be one of the most competitive first rounds we've ever seen. There may be no series more evenly matched, though, than the one between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
There are storylines galore in this one, and star power to match. Can Luka Dončić do for the Lakers what he did for the Mavericks last year and beat the Wolves on the way to the Finals? Can Anthony Edwards ascend into the A+ tier of superstars with another deep run? How will JJ Redick fare in his first postseason as a head coach?
NBA fans around the world will of course be anxious to see LeBron James make a bid for a championship for possibly one of the final times of his incredible career. While most fans are focusing on LeBron, Ant-Man and Luka, though, there's reason to believe that this series could be decided not so much by the stars, but in the margins.
These are two evenly matched teams, having split the season series 2-2 (albeit with rosters that looked much different than what we'll see in this series). They finished just one game apart in the standings, which isn't typical of a 3-6 matchup.
Lakers fans know what they're going to get from most of the roster. LeBron and Luka are machines. Austin Reaves has reached another level this year. Even someone like Dorian Finney-Smith is a model of 3-and-D consistency that Redick knows he can count on night in and night out.
Who's the X-factor then? The guy that could make a big play at the right time, whether it's knocking down a big shot or coming up with a steal in crunch time. The Lakers have a few candidates. Dalton Knecht could provide instant offense off the bench, but he is still just a rookie and hasn't been getting anything close to meaningful minutes for a month. Jordan Goodwin showed enough to earn a standard NBA contract, but his impact has been minimal lately, also.
Jarred Vanderbilt is the guy that makes the most sense to assume a larger role in this series, for a few reasons. First, he's one of the few guys on the roster that can hope to if not contain Edwards, at least make him work hard for his points. Forcing him to expend extra energy could pay dividends if this series gets to six or seven games. Vanderbilt can easily switch onto anyone else the Wolves throw at him, especially when he's paired with Finney-Smith on the court.
Vanderbilt is the definition of a glue guy. He doesn't score much, because he doesn't have to. That's what LeBron and Luka and Reaves are for. His job is to do the dirty work that needs doing, to defend and rebound and screen and keep the ball moving when it finds him.
Jarred Vanderbilt could be the difference between the Lakers moving on and going home
Vanderbilt rarely plays more than 20 minutes in a game, but that seems likely to change in the playoffs. That's because Trey Jemison III and Christian Koloko are both ineligible for the postseason due to being on two-way contracts. This will necessitate Redick going with small-ball lineups more often, because it's not like Jaxson Hayes is going to absorb all those minutes on his own.
Rudy Gobert is a great defensive player, but he's someone that the Lakers can exploit because they're so perimeter-oriented, and he does almost all of his damage protecting the rim. Since Anthony Davis was sent away for Luka, the Lakers aren't looking to post up or take it down low very often, which nullifies Gobert's edge. Vanderbilt isn't a shooter, but having him out there screening the guys that are guarding L.A.'s three scorers means that the Lakers can get Gobert switched onto a perimeter scorer, and then the big Frenchman is in trouble.
The Lakers have 25 wins with Vanderbilt in the lineup this year. They also have 25 without him. The only difference is that they've played 10 more games without him. Since he returned in January from multiple offseason foot surgeries that kept him out longer than expected, the Lakers have been a different and much better team. A 25-21 record without him isn't all that impressive, but a 25-11 record with him is. That's the difference he makes when he's in the lineup, and it's one reason why Lakers fans should believe that they'll be moving on to the Western Conference semis.