When we think of the traditional prototypical leadoff hitter, we think of a fleet-footed, high-average contact hitter. He should be able to steal bases with ease and provide an abundance of run-scoring opportunities for the sluggers behind him. This description fits many ideal leadoff hitters across baseball history such as Rafael Furcal, Ichiro Suzuki, Tony Womack, Kenny Loftin and Rickey Henderson among so many others. But the Philadelphia Phillies stand as a testament to successfully defying logic.
Since 2022, Kyle Schwarber has been the team’s primary leadoff man. When we think of Schwarber, we think of a slow, strikeout-prone, low batting average slugger with 40-home run potential. All these characteristics contradict the conventional wisdom we discussed above.
One former leadoff man and Phillies’ star, Jimmy Rollins, has a problem with his old team’s batting order arrangement. The 2007 NL MVP had this to say on the Takeoff podcast:
“I would like to see (Trea Turner) lead off, get him a chance to get on base. Run the bases, put pressure on for the big boys, when (Bryce Harper) gets up there and (Kyle Schwarber) hitting those bombs.
"Schwarber is a good hitter, he's patient at the plate. But when he's on base in front of Trea, that kind of slows Trea down for obvious reasons. Why not turn those home runs into two- and three-run home runs?
"I still like setting up a guy that can hit a ball in the gap, you're still going to get more hits than home runs. You hit the ball in the gap, Trea scores. Trea hits a ball in the gap, Schwarber's not scoring. And that's what I like."
To Rollins’ point, Trea Turner embodies the skill set of the prototypical leadoff man. Turner often hits for high averages and has no shortage of speed. Schwarber’s talent for frequently sending baseballs over the outfield fence is more befitting of a cleanup hitter. But here’s why Rollins is wrong.
Jimmy Rollins fails to account for Kyle Schwarber’s on-base numbers
The most important part of leading off is getting on base. And while Turner is no laggard in this department, Schwarber is still better. The past two years saw Schwarber post on-base percentages of .343 and .366 in 2023 and 2024 respectively. Since joining the Phillies, Turner’s numbers stood at .320 and .338 in that time.
Schwarber’s tendency to hit home runs is often a deterrence to opposing pitchers living in the strike zone. As a result, Schwarber draws an immense number of walks. Schwarber’s .343 on-base percentage in 2023 was paired with an abysmal .197 batting average. In addition, Schwarber’s spot in the lineup gives him more opportunities to hit home runs.
Despite Rollins’ compelling argument, having Schwarber hit ahead of Turner actually provides more run-scoring opportunities. In this instance, conventional wisdom falls just short of finding the ideal leadoff man.