While the end of major season is fast approaching, the PGA Tour has another historic event with a wide-open field this week as the 2025 John Deere Classic is on deck. TPC Deere Run has been a staple on tour for the past few years, a track that produces low scores but is also demanding in order to do so. Our picks this week for the John Deere Classic have the ability to navigate the tree-lined fairways and ball-strike their way to success, as long as the putter cooperates.
Davis Thompson, last year's champion, is back in the field and among the favorites, as is Ben Griffin, who remains one of the hottest players on the PGA Tour. There's a lot to like about those guys, obviously, but the John Deere Classic picks for this week don't include them. Instead, we're looking a bit further down the odds board. This is a place where sleepers and longshots can thrive.
But which sleepers are we targeting? Let's get into the mix with our PGA Tour expert picks for the 2025 John Deere Classic to see who we like and why this week at TPC Deere Run.
Golf betting record in 2025: 21-103-0, +12.445 Units (-4. Units at Rocket) | One and Done Total for 2025: $13,350,935 (Ben Griffin at Rocket, $172,000)
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2025 John Deere Classic picks: Outrights, Top 10 and One and Done selections
As always, you can check out the full breakdown for my outright picks on SI Golf with a complete analysis of TPC Deere Run this week as well. But here's the three players we're riding with and the unit allocation for each outright play.
- Mark Hubbard +5000 (DraftKings), 0.4 Units
- Kevin Roy +6500 (Caesars), 0.3 Units
- Andrew Putnam +7500 (FanDuel), 0.3 Units
We're looking at three longshots this week, which is kind of what you expect when it comes to an event like the John Deere Classic. But let's dive into some even more PGA Tour expert picks for the week, starting next with a Top 10 selection and our One and Done play for the week in Silvis.
Top 10 pick for the John Deere Classic: Michael Thorbjornsen (+275)
The signs of a Michael Thorbjornsen breakout are there, and now he's coming to a place where he tied for runner-up a year ago and was T17 as an amateur the year before. Tying for fourth last week at the Rocket Classic wasn't a fluke. It was the sixth straight measured event where he's gained strokes ball-striking, including the third of his last four gaining on approach. More importantly, though, it was by far his best short game showing of the 2025 season. That seems like something where he's ironing out some of the weak points of his game, and I love that combined with the recent history at the John Deere.
One and Done Selection for the John Deere Classic: Andrew Putnam
He might have the longest odds of our three outrights this week, but I'm all-in on Andrew Putnam this week. His accurate driving and quality approach play are where to start, specifically with him being 16th in proximity on approaches from 100-150 yards out when he should be largely playing from the short grass. When you combine that with Top 30 putting on Bentgrass and Top 25 in Birdie or Better rate, he's getting way too overlooked as a real threat to win at TPC Deere Run.
John Deere Classic sleepers: Picks for Top 20 and more best bets
Kevin Roy to finish Top 20 at the John Deere Classic (+250)
Not only has Kevin Roy finished Top 20 in each of his last two starts, including a T8 last week, but he's been ball-striking the hell out of it. Roy has gained 1.8 strokes or more with his ball-striking in each of those finishes and his combination of accuracy and above-average distance off the tee is an even bigger advantage. The big limiting factor with Roy can often be the putter, but he's actually gained strokes on Bentgrass this season, which isn't the case on any other surface. In his current form, there's no reason not to believe in Roy this week.
Chan Kim to finish Top 40 at the John Deere Classic (+150)
Things hadn't been trending all that positively for Chan Kim until he came out with a Top 20 finish at the Rocket last week. Now he returns to TPC Deere Run, where he finished T12 a year ago, and there are signs that he could get relatively hot again. He's 22nd in Birdie or Better Percentage in this field over the last 24 rounds and has been a consistent presence on golf courses that are measured as easy for scoring conditions. To get a player with that upside at plus odds for only a Top 40, that seems like an easy sleeper to target this week.