John Mozeliak's Cardinals rebuild hits an unpredictable snag before it even begins

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in a position they haven't been in for years, if not decades - they're rebuilding. John Mozeliak made it abundantly clear that expectations to compete aren't as high as they usually are, and the moves that will come this offseason will likely reflect that.

Part of what comes with rebuilding is trading players away who don't fit in the future of the team. For the Cardinals, a player who has come up a lot is Nolan Arenado, and for good reason. Arenado should be dealt for whatever the Cardinals can get for him at this point, but he's far from the only veteran who is sure to be available.

One player who would make a whole lot of sense to explore moving on from is Sonny Gray, the team's ace. Yes, that'd make St. Louis substantially worse in 2025, but the Cardinals would be able to get a solid return for a really good right-handed pitcher. According to what Katie Woo of The Athletic ($) had to say, though, it's looking unlikely that Gray will get dealt this winter.

"At least one other player also has said he’d prefer to stay with the Cardinals, Mozeliak said. Per league sources, that player is Sonny Gray," Woo wrote.

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Sonny Gray not getting traded would be an unfortunate outcome for the Cardinals

Gray wanting to stay doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things, but when taking into account the fact that he has a full no-trade clause in the contract, that makes what he wants super important. Gray is in complete control over whether he stays in St. Louis or gets traded.

Now, does this mean that Gray is a lock to stay? No. The Cardinals could present him an offer to join a team he'd be comfortable waiving the no-trade clause for. However, if Gray would prefer to stay in St. Louis, that certainly diminishes the likelihood of a deal.

If Gray refuses to go anywhere this winter, that's an unfortunate outcome for St. Louis. He'd help make their team better, but this might be the best time to cash in on his value. His 3.84 ERA from last season was higher than what fans had become accustomed to with Gray, but even during his down year, he showed that he still has the frontline stuff that the Cardinals thought he did when they signed him last offseason.

Gray's ERA was high, but his 3.12 FIP suggests that he got pretty unlucky on the mound. Gray also had a 30.3 percent K rate, well above his career mark of 24.0 and in the 91st percentile according to Baseball Savant. It's not as if his stuff is trending downward. Gray also had a 5.8 percent walk rate, well below his career mark of 8.1 and good for the 84th percentile according to Baseball Savant. He gave up more hard-hit balls than he'd like, but for the most part, Gray was quite good in his debut season in St. Louis.

His return might've been a bit limited considering his age (35) and the fact that he's set to make an average of $30 million in the next two seasons, but when he's on, Gray is a frontline starter. The Cardinals would've gotten a strong return regardless.

Again, there are other moves to be made, but not being able to trade Gray in a year in which you're not trying to compete when his value will likely only decrease in time is a tough pill to swallow. Gray can change his mind, but for now, this is an early unfortunate offseason outcome for John Mozeliak and Co.