Could Juan Soto surpass even Shohei Ohtani with MLB Free Agency contract?

The New York Yankees advanced to the ALCS this week, which sets up a fascinating duel between New York's explosive offense and the Cleveland Guardians' unrivaled bullpen. The Yankees are the favorites going in, in large part due to the combined star-power of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto in the heart of that lineup.

Soto's arrival in New York has gone about as well as anyone could've expected. He put together arguably his best season to date, slashing .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and 109 RBI across 576 at-bats. Now he's four wins away from the World Series and a chance to put a stamp on his budding legacy.

The expectation is that Soto will finish third in American League MVP voting behind Bobby Witt Jr. and his own teammate (and the presumed winner), Judge. That sets up what is easily the most anticipated and intriguing free agent cycle since... well, last winter, when Shohei Ohtani was up for grabs.

Represented by notorious hardball negotiator Scott Boras, Soto is going to clean up in an open market. The Yankees obviously want him back, but several reported suitors could drive up the price astronomically. The New York Mets are considered the biggest threat, while the Philadelphia Phillies and Toronto Blue Jays will also toss their hat in the ring. And, just in case, somebody should tell the Los Angeles Dodgers that Soto isn't actually available this winter. God forbid.

Most speculation has placed Soto's new contract somewhere in the $600 million range, which is historic in its own right. But, a new prediction from Eli Ben-Porat of Baseball America has Soto reaching even higher than Ohtani's record-breaking $700 million deal last winter.

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Juan Soto could sign $701 million contract with Yankees

"Before the season, I predicted that Soto will sign with the Yankees for 15 years, $701 million dollars," writes Ben-Porat. "I think that’s roughly what he’ll get in free agency, and I think there is almost no chance the Yankees let him walk. There are very few players in baseball for whom you can expect a six-win floor for at least the next three seasons, and any team that’s looking to win a World Series is going to want to sign him."

He also believes New York will take every possible measure to ensure Soto's return after almost letting Judge slip away a few years ago. The optics of the Judge-Giants connection weren't great for the Yankees and there's no reason to get cute with Soto negotiations. He is going to command a silly amount of dough and the Yankees ought to fork it over, lest another team land the best young talent in baseball.

Ohtani's contract was unique in many ways. First, he's a pitcher and a hitter, so there's theoretical double value there. He's also an international marketing machine. That dude is basically printing money for the Dodgers organization. Soto is a star, but he does not have the same global icon status as Ohtani. Also of note, Ohtani's $700 million was almost entirely deferred, which actually decreases the value of the contract long term. Odds are Soto won't accept a similar deal structure.

If Soto gets $701 million, it will be paid up front and rooted in baseball reasons (not that Ohtani hasn't lived up to his massive contract with an MVP-level season). While Soto can't pitch (and he's arguably not even on Ohtani's level as a hitter), he is also 25 years old. That is five full years younger than Ohtani, which is hard to ignore when projecting the value of a 10-plus year deal over time.

Ohtani's contract will end when he's 39. If Soto were to sign the same contract, it would end when he's 35. How much pitching can Ohtani do those last four years? How much of his speed and power survives the rigors of aging? Those are valid concerns. If Soto signs for 15 years and $701 million, as Ben-Porat predicts, that is obviously less annually than Ohtani receives from LA, even if it's more overall.

The MLB, like every other major American sports league, has seen contract numbers balloon in recent years. This is a trend that won't stop anytime soon. Somebody is going to eclipse Ohtani's number eventually. Soto just might accomplish it sooner than folks expected.