Kentucky bracketology update: Win over Oklahoma was more important than you think

The Wildcats kept their quest for an SEC Tournament bye very much alive.
Feb 26, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) drives to the basket around Oklahoma Sooners forward Jalon Moore (14) during the first half at Lloyd Noble Center.
Feb 26, 2025; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) drives to the basket around Oklahoma Sooners forward Jalon Moore (14) during the first half at Lloyd Noble Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The Kentucky Wildcats survived by the skin of their teeth on Wednesday night, eking out a win on the road over Oklahoma thanks to an all-time performance (28 points, including the game-winning layup in the final seconds) by Otega Oweh. Mark Pope's team has struggled on the road all year long, just 2-6 in their previous eight true road contests, and finding a way to get it done in a hostile environment against a team fighting for its NCAA Tournament life will do wonders for the Wildcats' confidence moving forward.

It also could do wonders for their seeding come March. Not that Kentucky was in bad shape on that front entering Wednesday; the Wildcats are either a three or a four seed in just about everyone's bracket projections at the moment. But that can be an awfully big difference, especially in a year like this in which avoiding the No. 1 seeds for as long as possible could be the key to a deep tournament run. And the Oklahoma win could help the Cats do just that, in more ways than one.

Kentucky Bracketology: Why Oklahoma win could mean big things for Wildcats' NCAA Tournament seeding

Of course, the win itself is a boost to the resume, moving Kentucky to 9-8 in Quad 1 games this season — tied for the third-most wins in the country in that category, behind only Alabama and Auburn. But it's also a big boost to the Wildcats' chances of earning a bye into the second round of the SEC Tournament. As things stand, Kentucky is currently tied for seventh in the conference with Ole Miss at 8-7, with the top eight teams automatically advancing to the second round (and the top four automatically advancing to the quarterfinals).

If the Cats had lots on Wednesday, they would've found themselves in a very precarious position, stuck in a three-way tie for eighth place with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. With games against Auburn and Missouri still to come to close the regular season, the odds of Kentucky dropping into the bottom half of the league and having to play a first-round game in Nashville would've increased dramatically. And that could've spelled trouble as far as NCAA seeding is concerned; in a league as deep as the SEC is this season, you want as few opportunities for an upset as possible, and a fifrst-round matchup against even a team like Oklahoma or Texas could've caused plenty of consternation.

Now, Kentucky likely won't have to worry about that. Even just a 1-2 finish down the stretch, with a win over LSU, would put the Cats at 9-9 and likely be enough to clinch the first-round bye. A second-round matchup in the conference tournament would likely come against another team already squarely in the Big Dance, and could potentially be yet another Quad 1 opportunity. Best case, a deep run in Nashville could bump UK onto the No. 2 line; but the worst case would still allow the Cats to avoid a Sweet 16 matchup with the likes of Auburn or Duke.