Kentucky Derby weather forecast: How rain will impact each contender

The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby could be one of the rarest kinds: A rain race. The forecast will excite some riders and send others into a panic attack ahead of the biggest race of the year.

Track conditions play a critical role in how a race is run. Some horses may blaze on a dry track but struggled to find their footing on wet soil. Some horses live for the wet conditions, earning the title of Mudder. For many of the horses running the Kentucky Derby this year, we just don't know how they'll react. It may be their first time in less-than-ideal conditions.

Rain is sure to impact the 2025 Kentucky Derby, so put on your poncho and get ready for the ultimate weather wild card.

All you need to know for a Kentucky Derby in the rain

1. 2025 Kentucky Derby forecast
2. How each 2025 Kentucky Derby horse has performed in the rain
3. Explaining horse racing track conditions
4. History of Kentucky Derby track conditions

2025 Kentucky Derby forecast

The forecast for Churchill Downs on Saturday calls for a steady stretch of rain throughout the day, according to Accuweather. Fortunately, the rain is expected to stop by around 5 p.m. ET.

For the two hours before the race begins — post time is 6:57 p.m. ET — the chance of rain will hover between 34 and 40 percent.

If we're lucky, there will be no rain coming down on the derby and the track will have some time to dry up. Accuweather expects it to be 62 degrees and mostly cloudy with wind gusts of up to 22 mph.

How each 2025 Kentucky Derby horse has performed in the rain

Citizen Bull, 20-1

Citizen Bull has never raced in rainy conditions. His four career wins were on fast tracks.

Neoequos, 30-1

Neoequos' first start was in the rain but he didn't finish after being bumped and losing his rider. He won the only other rain race he's run back in January.

Final Gambit, 30-1

Final Gambit has never raced on dirt but he did win a rainy race on an all-weather track on Feb. 15.

American Promise, 30-1

American Promise won on a muddy track in December, besting fellow Kentucky Derby challenger Publisher. He finished eighth on a sloppy track in September of 2024

Admire Daytona, 30-1

There are not records of Admire Dayton racing in rainy conditions.

Luxor Café, 15-1

Luxor Café has won both races he's started on dirt but neither were in wet conditions.

Journalism, 3-1

The favorite Journalism has four wins in five races but all were on fast dirt tracks in dry conditions.

Burnham Square, 12-1

Burnham Square has three wins in six races, all on fast dirt tracks in dry conditions.

Flying Mohawk, 30-1

Flying Mohawk is making his first start on dirt but he finished second and fifth in races on turf in wet conditions.

East Avenue, 20-1

East Avenue has two wins in five races, all on fast dirt tracks in dry conditions.

Publisher, 20-1

Publisher has never won a race but his finishes in wet conditions are encouraging. He finished second to American Promise in December on a muddy track and third in September on a sloppy track.

Tiztastic, 20-1

One of the most veteran horses in the field, Tiztastic has three wins in eight races. One of those wins on a fast dirt track. The other two were on firm turf ones. He has never raced in the rain.

Render Judgment, 30-1

Render Judgment has run in seven races with one win. He has never raced in wet conditions.

Coal Battle, 30-1

Coal Battle got his first win on a sloppy track in July of 2024. He also won a muddy race in November of that year. He has four other wins on fast dirt tracks.

Sandman, 6-1

Sandman has three wins in eight races, all on fast dirt tracks.

Sovereignty, 5-1

Sovereignty has run five times on fast dirt tracks with two wins. He has no experience in wet conditions.

Chunk of Gold, 30-1

Chunk of Gold has one first-place and three second-place finishes in four races but none came in the wet. Both of his races on fast dirt tracks were runner-up performances.

Owen Almighty, 30-1

Owen Almighty has three wins in seven races but all were on fast dirt tracks.

Baeza, 12-1

Baeza is a one-time winner and two-time runner up on fast dirt tracks. He has raced on firm turf but never in wet conditions.

Explaining horse racing track conditions

You may see track conditions referred to or abbreviated from Fast to Sloppy to Heavy. Let's get into what those mean on a dirt track like they run the Kentucky Derby on.

Fast (FT)

The dirt is dry and not impacted by rain. This is the ideal condition for horses to run.

Good (GD)

The dirt is mostly dry but may still be drying out slightly from the rain. It is less firm than a fast track, which may impact the footing of some horses, though not greatly.

Wet Fast (WF)

The base of the dirt is dry but there is surface water from fresh rain. The moisture on top and structure underneath actually benefits speed.

Sloppy (SY)

The base of the dirt has some moisture but is not fully saturated. There is standing water usually from fresh rain. Contrary to its name, a "sloppy" track can actually be rather fast because the surface is compacted without being completely unstable and there is less kickback.

Muddy (MY)

The dirt is wet with water saturated into the base. This is not ideal for setting the fastest times but some horses excel in the mud. Comfort level in this condition matters greatly.

Slow (SL)

The dirt has moisture in the base but the surface is drying. It is uneven and, as the name would suggest, not ideal for speed.

History of Kentucky Derby track conditions

The Kentucky Derby has been raced 150 times with 70 of those Derby Days seeing precipitation. However, the vast majority of those races were still run in "fast" conditions.