On Monday, the NBA settled various tiebreakers ahead of the 2025 NBA Draft. This is an annual exercise, and the ramifications of each tiebreaker drawing vary wildly in importance. For the Atlanta Hawks, two of the tiebreakers brought real impact.
One stemmed from the 2025 first round pick owed to Atlanta from the Los Angeles Lakers (by way of the New Orleans Pelicans) and, entering Monday, the pick could land anywhere between No. 22 and No. 25 overall. Things broke well for Atlanta, with the No. 22 pick now under control by the Hawks and a best-case scenario in a four-way drawing.
The other impact was from a top-12 protected first round pick owed to the Hawks from the Sacramento Kings. Ultimately, the Kings will enter the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery on May 12 at No. 13, with roughly a 93 percent chance to convey the No. 13 pick to Atlanta, a roughly 3 percent chance to convey the No. 14 pick to Atlanta, and roughly a 4 percent chance of jumping into the top four and keeping the pick in Sacramento.
In some ways, that is an optimal scenario for the Hawks. Entering the season, the best possible draft pick the Hawks could get from the Kings was No. 13 overall, and that is now the single most likely outcome. As such, Atlanta should be quite excited about the possibility but, as the Hawks know well, a 4 percent chance isn't a 0 percent chance. In fact, the Hawks won the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery with only a 3 percent chance, ultimately netting talented forward Zaccharie Risacher at the top of the class.
If the Kings move into the top-4 the Hawks could do even better next year
Fortunately for the Hawks, this is not a "one-and-done" situation. If the Kings get (very) lucky and draw into the top four, keeping the pick in 2025, Sacramento would then owe a top-10 protected selection to Atlanta in 2026. In theory, the Hawks could get a higher pick (as high as No. 11) next year, though it would be fair to say it is unlikely for things to break as perfectly in 2025-26 as they did in 2024-25 through the lens of the Kings pick.
At this early juncture, it is tough to compare draft classes, though 2026 does have quite a bit of talent in the range that Atlanta could be picking. The Hawks do have a firm first round pick in 2025 and, while Atlanta will have a pick in 2026 as well, the Spurs have swap rights in the first round as a result of the ill-fated Dejounte Murray trade.
In the end, it seems clear that the Hawks "holding serve" and getting the No. 13 or No. 14 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft would be best for Atlanta. After all, that is a lottery pick in a talented draft, and it would put a more positive bow on the Kevin Huerter trade executed nearly three years ago if the Hawks came away with a top-14 pick. Still, it isn't the absolute end of the world if the Kings get lucky, as Atlanta would have the ability to "kick the can down the road" a bit to 2026. Given Sacramento's roster quality and insistence on aiming for the middle, it is at least possible that the No. 11 or No. 12 pick in 2026 could convey to Atlanta.
The ping-pong balls will determine everything in this case and, after the way 2024 went for the Hawks on lottery night, it would be tough to complain too much if Sacramento gets lucky and jumps up. Of course, that won't stop anyone from an eye-roll, at the very least.