Finally, the Eastern Conference finals are here, and they feature the two teams we expected all along! Wait. What’s that? You’re telling me nobody expected the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers to be playing a best-of-seven series to advance to the 2025 NBA Finals? Interesting.
Anyhow, here we are. Knicks-Pacers. Here are three things I’m watching that could decide the series.
1. Who guards Karl-Anthony Towns?
It was mostly Myles Turner in the three games these teams played in the regular season. But the series wrapped by early February, before Knicks opponents figured out that putting a wing on Towns made him short-circuit.
It’s worth wondering if the Pacers will stick with their game plan or make the adjustment the rest of the league made. Here’s some insight on how effective this strategy was in the regular season, courtesy of The Athletic’s Fred Katz:
By the end of the season, the Knicks were 35-12 in games where big men were Towns’ primary defender and 11-14 in games when perimeter players were his primary defender. Towns set 27.0 ball screens a game when bigs were primarily on him, according to Second Spectrum. He set just 15.9 when a guard or wing was his main guy.
The Pistons and Celtics copied this strategy in the first two rounds. While Towns has popped off for a few big scoring nights, he has mostly been held in check. He’s averaging 19.8 points and attempting just 3.7 3-pointers per game (a full attempt down from the regular season).
Meanwhile, against the Pacers, Towns averaged 30.3 points on 56.6% shooting overall and made 46.7% of his 5 3-point attempts per game. It would make sense if Pacers coach Rick Carlisle switched things up.
But then the obvious question is: Who? Indiana’s best wing defender is Aaron Nesmith, but he might have his hands full with Jalen Brunson. The Pacers tried Andrew Nembhard as Brunson’s defender in the early-season matchups, but Brunson overpowered him. They eventually settled on Nesmith, who fared better. Nembhard could get a chance on Towns, but that might be giving up more size than they're comfortable with.
Pascal Siakam could get a chance. He’s not a wing, but he’s more nimble than Turner and defends better in space. The Pacers could then have Turner sag off Josh Hart and patrol the paint. That would leave Haliburton on OG Anunoby (with Nembhard on Mikal Bridges), but Carlisle might be willing to live with that.
Carlisle could try Nemhard on Brunson again, then have Nesmith defend Towns and freely switch those actions (the Pacers tried not to switch those pick-and-rolls during the season).
I expect him to try all of the options – including playing it straight up – during the early part of this series.
2. Can Tyrese Haliburton keep it going?
Haliburton has fueled the top offense remaining in the playoffs with his masterful playmaking and timely scoring. His averages in the playoffs don’t look dramatically different than in the regular season, but how he’s bending the defense does.
He’s increased his drives and isolation attempts and is generating points for his team on a greater percentage of those possessions, but he also hasn’t faced the toughest matchups.
Here’s a list of the wings who have spent the most time defending Haliburton in these playoffs: Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Gary Trent Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr.
Not exactly Bridges, Hart and Anunoby. Haliburton struggled to score efficiently against the Knicks in the regular-season series, making just 43.9% of his shots in the three games.
Bridges will get the main assignment on Haliburton, but it’ll be a team effort. The Knicks can build a defensive shell unlike anything the Pacers have faced this postseason. The Pacers will try to bust that shell with pace and Haliburton’s transcendent passing.
3. Does the Pacers bench swing the series?
The Pacers are getting 35.7 points per game from their bench during the playoffs. The Knicks' bench has averaged 13.9 points. That’s a mighty big gap.
Part of the gap can be attributed to the minutes. The Pacers go eight or nine deep while the Knicks tend to stick with a core top seven. But these teams approach their benches that way for a reason.
Indiana is flush with impact players. T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin have all had moments this postseason.
Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau only trusts Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson as playoff subs.
On the one hand, Carlisle may be forced to play his starters more minutes in this series, shrinking the bench advantage. Haliburton leads all Pacers starters with 34.1 minutes per game in the playoffs, which is less than all Knicks starters.
On the other hand, these playoffs have been a war of attrition. If the Knicks are worn down by the end of the series or sustain an untimely injury, they may not have the depth to make up for it. The Pacers are better built to withstand something like that.
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NBA News Roundup
- The Thunder overpowered the Timberwolves in the second half of Game 1 to take a 1-0 lead in the Western Conference finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31 points and the Thunder defense forced 19 turnovers.
- Anthony Edwards was held to just 13 shot attempts, his fewest in 11 games this postseason. Only one of those shots was taken in the paint. “I definitely got to shoot more," Edwards said. “Probably just get off the ball a little more, play without the ball. I think that will be the answer. Because playing on the ball, they're just going to double and sit in the gaps all day.”
- Stephon Castle was a unanimous first-team All-Rookie selection. He was joined by Atlanta's Zaccharie Risacher, Memphis’ Jaylen Wells and Zach Edey, and Washington's Alex Sarr.
- According to The Athletic, the NBA is expected to (finally) announce the MVP winner on Wednesday night. And it's expected to be Gilgeous-Alexander.