When we look back at the excesses of the Jon Horst years, the Kyle Kuzma trade capping the Khris Middleton era may define it more than acquiring Jrue Holiday or trading him for Damian Lillard. Horst has been the league’s premier trade merchant for better or worse. On one hand, his aggressiveness produced an NBA title. However, his laissez-faire movement of first-round picks has put Milwaukee in a hole. Kyle Kuzma may have been his Waterloo though.
Lillard’s deep vein thrombosis means Milwaukee could be missing at least one of their leading stars for the second straight year. If the Bucks had nailed the trade deadline, they could have handed off their offensive burden to Jimmy Butler or several other wings who were available at the deadline.
The much-maligned Kuzma has now been elevated back to second billing on Milwaukee’s hierarchy out of necessity. It’s a role he struggled with in Washington alongside Jordan Poole. Most disconcerting is that he failed to provide an upgrade over Khris Middleton.
It didn’t take a detective to see his underwhelming performance coming. In Washington and L.A., Kuzma never demonstrated much of a capacity to play the point forward and ease the playmaking burden for Lillard. In Washington, he averaged an 2.5-2.0 assists to turnover ratio, and that has persisted in Milwaukee when his usage has shrunk.
With Kuzma off the floor, the Bucks have been better offensively and defensively. What's surprising are his offensive limitations. His minutes are up 20 percent since landing in Milwaukee, but his scoring average is down as the third option, while his efficiency has remained underwater. Kuzma's arrival has been less revitalization and more like an Extinction Level Event.
Kyle Kuzma may have cost the Bucks everything
The opportunity cost of the first-round picks sacrificed for Kuzma hurt as well. Doc Rivers dismissed 2024 first-round pick Andre Jackson from the rotation, whereas Kuzma has been outplayed by one of the rookies used as an asset in the Middleton exchange. A.J. Johnson was directly sent to Washington in the deal that jettisoned Middleton, and was virtually unplayable in Milwaukee. In Washington, he’s already outplaying Kuzma. Over their last six games, Johnson is averaging 12 points on 47 percent shooting, 37 percent on triples, and 3.8 assists. During that same span, Kuzma is posting up 14.8 points on 42.4 percent shooting overall and 27 percent beyond the arc.
Horst’s belief that a one-dimensional forward playing a counterintuitive style than the standard wings on championship contenders hasn’t paid off. Kuzma is an antediluvian wing who is shrinking the floor with his torrential downpour of misfires. In the modern NBA, long, rangy wins who can space the floor are the archetype. Horst’s gamble on Kuzma was a risky endeavor that hasn’t paid off.
The Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, and Cavs have all invested in 3-and-D wings. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the heart and soul of Boston. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby were acquired for their All-NBA potential, and lead the league in corner triples. Jalen WIlliams has been a two-way soothsayer on the wing who can guard 1-5. D’Andre Hunter was a great trade deadline addition and Max Strus has been a revelation since being poached off the Miami Heat.
The Bucks have Kuzma under contract for another two years so it appears they’re stuck with him through 2027. Unless he improves drastically, his disappointing play will make it even tougher to move his contract in a yard sale. Down the stretch, all eyes will be on whether Kuzma can salvage his mollified reputation. Don't bet on it though.