The NFL Draft is mere hours away. For football fans that have thrown themselves headlong into the cottage industry of mock drafts, you'll finally be able to follow Jon Snow on Game of Thrones soon and say that now your watch has ended, at least until next year.
Draft season isn't for the faint of heart — not for the players that have to run through a veritable meat market to hawk their own wares, not for general managers and coaches whose entire professional future could hinge on picking the right 20-year-old for the job, and certainly not on the fans, who are invested in all of this silliness purely for the love of the game.
The draft is the best kind of reality TV. It's unscripted, it's filled with unpredictable twists and turns, and it makes viewers at home become emotionally invested in people that they didn't know existed until recently. There's really nothing else like it.
Fans of the Chicago Bears have been energized this offseason by what is universally being viewed as a masterclass in franchise building. The Bears stole Ben Johnson away from a division rival to be their next head coach, and everything the offensive mastermind has said and done since getting hired has been met with rave reviews, from his impromptu address upon entering Halas Hall on his first day, to his killer first pitch at Wrigley Field, to his poem about Brian Piccolo. I mean, come on, if this was a Kate Hudson movie, her friend would be warning her that this guy is too good to be true.
Ryan Poles wasn't content just to hire the right man for the job, he's also done a hell of a job of building out a talented roster around him. The offensive line was among the worst in the league last year. No problem, as Poles went out and traded for First Team All-Pro Joe Thuney and former Pro Bowler Jonah Jackson. Oh yeah, he also signed Drew Dalman, the top available center, away from the Falcons. He added to the defensive line with Dayo Odeyingbo and Grady Jarrett. He even locked up do-everything nickel corner Kyler Gordon to a long-term deal. Chef Poles has been cooking with gas for months now.
A general manager has dozens of jobs and responsibilities, but the most visible one is the draft. That's why Poles needs to stick the landing by nailing the draft as the final cherry on top of a spectacular offseason, and it all starts with the 10th overall pick on Thursday night.
What will it take for Ryan Poles to nail the draft?
There are many schools of thought around this question, and Bears fans have been divided for months on what the team should do. Some want to continue stocking up on offensive linemen. Others, like myself, have been praying to the football gods for Ashton Jeanty. Those aren't the only options, as the Bears could just as easily go with an edge rusher or a tight end, and that's before we even consider whether they might trade up or trade back.
It's a real quagmire, though at least we can say that most of the options seem like good ones. For his part, Poles fanned the flames by predicting earlier this week that the first round could get "wild." That's scary and exciting at the same time. Could he really trade up for Abdul Carter? Could he swing a pick swap deal with the Bengals for Trey Hendrickson? I hear wild and my mind starts to race. Will Campbell looks like an outstanding prospect to me, but I wouldn't call drafting him wild, ya know?
The time for speculation is almost at an end. It's time for the rubber to meet the road and make one final, definitive prediction for how the first round will unfold for the Bears. Here's how I think it will go down.
Is Ashton Jeanty the pick?
It's no secret that the Bears are in love with Ashton Jeanty, and I think that where there's smoke, there's fire. Poles and Johnson would love to have the Boise State superstar fall to them at No. 10, but the only problem is that I don't think it's going to happen.
The Raiders have been seen as the biggest threat to steal Jeanty at No. 6, but out of nowhere, the Jaguars seem to have entered the picture one pick earlier. The Jags have long been tied to Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham, but all the reports this week are saying that Jacksonville is going offense, with the choice coming down to Jeanty or Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
The Jags did just hire an offensive-minded coach in Liam Coen, but a big part of me wonders if this isn't a ploy to get someone to surrender a mother lode to trade up. Occam's Razor pegs the Patriots at No. 4 as the most likely culprits if this is misinformation, as they have the most to gain by getting teams interested in jumping Jacksonville.
Given their obvious interest in Jeanty, the Bears are the most talked-about trade-up candidate. Our own Mark Powell even drew up what a potential deal might look like. In short, he has the Bears giving up the 10th pick, the 41st pick and a 2026 third- and fifth-rounder to New England in order to jump up and get Jeanty.
I'm as high on Jeanty as someone could possibly be, but even I have to say, that's a lot to give up. Over and over, the draft rewards teams that are patient and let great players fall to them. See the Eagles and Ravens for proof. Teams that panic trade to move up almost always end up getting burned, and to do it for a running back, as special as he may be, seems like a poor use of resources.
It's not like the Bears are a player away from winning the Super Bowl, and it's still entirely possible that Jeanty could make it to 10. I love Jeanty, but I don't think the Bears should do this. I also believe that Poles is too smart to take the bait and give up this much.
Another outstanding FanSided writer, Christopher Kline, suggested that the Bears could call the Jets about moving up to No. 7 if Jeanty is still available. I could get behind that, as moving up three spots shouldn't cost nearly as much as moving up six.
Still, I think Jeanty is going to be gone by then, and myself and the rest of the Bears fanbase is just going to have to accept it. I believe Jacksonville will take him with the fifth pick, after which the Raiders will pivot to Missouri tackle Armand Membou, another possible Bears target.
If not Jeanty, who will the Bears get?
The Jaguars going with Jeanty isn't ideal, but it could have a silver lining. Jacksonville has seemed like a lock to take Mason Graham this entire offseason, but if they go with Jeanty or McMillan, it could portend a Graham slide. Many of the more recent mock drafts have predicted this, and I have to say, I just don't get it. Every bit of tape that I've seen on Graham shows him to be a game-wrecking force, capable of taking on double teams to stuff the running game and get after the quarterback.
Here's how I see the nine picks shaking out before the Bears are on the clock:
Pick | Team | Player |
|---|---|---|
1 | Titans | Cam Ward |
2 | Browns | Travis Hunter |
3 | Giants | Abdul Carter |
4 | Patriots | Will Campbell |
5 | Jaguars | Ashton Jeanty |
6 | Raiders | Armand Membou |
7 | Jets | Tyler Warren |
8 | Panthers | Tetairoa McMillan |
9 | Saints | Kelvin Banks Jr. |
If the board falls this way, I have to think the Bears will be doing backflips to get Graham's name in. Other possibilities include Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr. to continue loading up on the offensive line, Michigan tight end Colston Loveland to give Ben Johnson a versatile weapon in the passing game, and Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen, whose explosive athleticism could be a difference-maker next to Montez Sweat.
In the end, I think Graham is too good to pass up. Poles will resist the urge to trade up, and he'll be handsomely rewarded with a blue chip prospect on the defensive line. He'll feel good for a few minutes, then get to work on mapping out the second round, where two more critical picks await the next night.