Latest crushing loss forces Phillies to realize who really runs the NL East

Entering the 2025 MLB season, there was reason to believe that the NL East was going to be a three-horse race consisting of the Atlanta Braves, the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets.

The Braves' horrific start has made them winning the division far less likely, leaving the Phillies and Mets as co-favorites to be crowned as NL East winners. But another Mets win over Philadelphia suggests that the NL East might not even be a two-horse race: In fact, New York should be considered the pretty clear favorite right now.

You can't win a division in April; Mets fans know that better than just about any other fan base. However, there are several reasons to believe that the NL East will run through Queens in 2025. NBC Sports Philadelphia's Michael Barkann more or less admitted as much after the Phillies lost yet another game to the Mets on Tuesday night.

"There is no rivalry between the Phillies and the New York Mets," Barkann said. "Not when you've lost eight of your last 10, including the playoffs. Not when you are 6-19 in your last 25 games [at Citi Field]. The Mets are the bullies, not the Phillies. The Mets are the bullies that have taken the Phillies' lunch money again and again; they've lost this series now."

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Mets dominance over Phillies shows they should be considered true NL East favorites

This was quite the statement. I'd disagree that there's no rivalry, but it certainly does feel one-sided right now. Not only did the Mets knock Philadelphia out of last year's postseason, but they've had the upper hand in recent regular season tilts as well. They've won each of the first two games against the Phillies to begin 2025, and the games haven't felt as close as the box score might suggest.

Again, divisions cannot be won in April, but this Mets team certainly feels for real. At 17-7, they not only lead the NL East over Philadelphia by four games, but they're tied with the San Diego Padres for the best record in the Majors. They've done this with key contributors like Sean Manaea, Francisco Alvarez, and Jeff McNeil on the IL; they've done this with Juan Soto playing nowhere near the Juan Soto anyone expected when he signed his $765 million contract; and they've done this with guys like Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos and Edwin Diaz getting off to slow starts.

The Mets are elite, and it feels like they aren't close to reaching their peak. They probably shouldn't be considered World Series favorites over the Los Angeles Dodgers, but New York is certainly a threat to win it all.

On the flip side, the 2025 Phillies feel underwhelming. Yes, there's a ton of talent on this team. The starting rotation, when healthy, is arguably the best in the sport. Bryce Harper is still playing at a very high level. Kyle Schwarber can change any given game with one big swing. However, many of the same problems with this team still persist.

The bullpen was a strength in last year's regular season, but it fizzled in October, and Dave Dombrowski made it substantially worse over the offseason. Their lineup, while talented, is remarkably inconsistent, as we've seen in Philadelphia scoring a run in just two of their 18 innings in Queens.

The Phillies might've won the NL East last season, but a big reason for that has to do with New York's lackluster start to the 2024 campaign. Since the beginning of last June, the Mets have been far and away the best team in the NL East, and they should only get better when their team gets healthier and Soto starts producing like everyone knows he can.

The Phillies are a good team that will almost certainly make the playoffs, but there are levels to this. Until proven otherwise, the Mets should be considered the favorites to win the NL East for the first time since 2015.