Lions advanced stats explain why this really could be Detroit's year

The Detroit Lions have emerged as one of the league’s most dominant teams through eight weeks of the 2024 season.

Detroit began the season with a relatively mild start. After an overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams in the season opener, the Lions lost a close game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home and won a close game against the Arizona Cardinals on the road. Since then, everything seems to have fallen into place.

In their recent victories, the Lions appeared to be playing with their food. Detroit has thrown the ball to offensive tackle Penei Sewell on a hook-and-ladder play, while running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown have both thrown touchdown passes.

The Lions sit atop the NFC standings with a 6-1 record, and they appear to be on track to make a deep postseason run. At least one statistic suggests they could find themselves in Super Bowl LIX in February.

Advanced stat suggests Lions are on a championship trajectory

The Lions are one of just nine teams since 1979 to rank in the top five of DVOA for all three phases of the game through Week 8 of the season, according to Aaron Schatz of FTN Fantasy. Six of the other eight teams went on to win the Super Bowl. 

The only two teams that failed to hoist a Lombardi Trophy were the New England Patriots in 2007 and the Buffalo Bills in 2022. New England infamously became the first and only team to record an undefeated 16-game regular season, but they ultimately lost to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. Buffalo finished the 2022 season with a 13-3 record but ultimately fell victim to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Divisional Round.

The Lions are currently the top-ranked team in total DVOA this season. They are No. 4 in offensive DVOA, No. 3 in defensive DVOA and No. 1 in special teams DVOA. The Kansas City Chiefs ranked in the top five for all three phases last season and went on to defeat the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

The Lions have scored at least 40 points in three of their last four games, and they’ve cruised to victory in convincing fashion. Not all news has been good during that period, however. The Lions lost star defensive end Aiden Hutchinson to a devastating leg injury during their 47-9 win against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.

While the early success has been promising, the Lions will still have to finish strong through their remaining 10 games. Despite their success, the Lions are far from guaranteed to win the division. The NFC North appears to be the toughest division in the league this season, and Detroit still has five divisional games remaining.

The Lions will visit Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers in a pivotal matchup on Sunday. The winner of that game will take the division lead.