The unpredictability of March Madness is a part of its allure. The road to the Final Four will inevitably be filled with shocking upsets, Cinderella stories and shining moments.
Each team knows who they will play in the first round and who they could potentially face in the second round if they win. Beyond that, nothing is certain and the possibilities are nearly endless. The odds of randomly filling a perfect bracket are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 — that's 9.2 quintillion. Anyone with knowledge of NCAA basketball can improve their ones to one in 120.2 billion.
As teams prepare for the madness ahead, here’s a look back at the greatest Cinderella stories throughout the history of the NCAA Tournament.
March Madness’ biggest Cinderella stories and low-seed champions
Every March, a low-seeded team emerges as an unlikely underdog that defies the odds, eliminating higher-seeded powerhouse programs that stand in their path. These bracket-busting teams are often called Cinderella teams, but their fairytales rarely have happy endings. Although few Cinderella teams have finished the tournament as champions, it has happened.
Unlike the NBA’s seven-game series format, the NCAA Tournament offers no forgiveness for an off night, a poor performance or a costly mistakes. The most talented team rarely ever wins. In the single-elimination tournament, all that matters is which team plays better on that particular day.
What’s the lowest seed to win March Madness?
Villanova (1985)
In 1985, the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams and created more madness by giving more low-seeded teams an opportunity to advance. That year, the No. 8 Villanova Wildcats went on an improbable run that culminated with one of the greatest upsets in NCAA history. Villanova pulled out a 66-64 victory over the top-seeded Georgetown Hoyas and became the lowest-seeded team to win the NCAA Tournament.
The Hoyas, led by Patrick Ewing, were the defending champions and had already defeated the Wildcats twice in the regular season. In the rubber match, Villanova shot a staggering 78.6 percent from the field to outlast Ewing and the Hoyas. Villanova’s accomplishment as the No. 8 seed has stood the test of time as well. Since then, only three No. 8 seeds have made the title game — Butler (2011), Kentucky (2014) and North Carolina (2022) — and all three fell short.
Biggest Cinderella runs in NCAA Tournament history
No. 6 NC State (1983)
The NC State Wolfpack went on a magical run during the 1983 NCAA Tournament. After barely making the tournament as the No. 6 seed, they became one of the greatest Cinderella stories in sports history. Four of their six victories came by just one or two points, and they needed double overtime just to outlast Pepperdine in the first round. They scraped by heavy favorites throughout the tournament, including a one-point win over Virginia in the Elite Eight and an upset victory over Georgia in the Final Four. They cemented their place in basketball history with a 54-52 win against the top-seeded Houston Cougars in the championship game.
No. 6 Kansas (1988)
The Kansas Jayhawks are known as a big-name program, but they still put together an impressive Cinderella story in the 1988 NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks entered the tournament as the No. 6 seed, but fueled their way to the championship with vengeance.
Along with a Final Four victory over No. 2 Duke, Kansas got revenge against two teams they had lost to twice during the regular season: The Jayhawks defeated No. 2 seed Kansas State in the Elite Eight and No. 1 Oklahoma in the championship.
No. 11 Loyola Chicago (2018)
The Loyola Chicago Ramblers entered the 2018 NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed and found ways to clinch close games with clutch shots. They won their first round matchup against Miami (FL) with a deep 3-point shot at the buzzer, then defeated Tennessee with a 15-foot jumper in the final seconds. The Ramblers defeated No. 7 Nevada in the Sweet 16, draining another 3-pointer with 6.3 seconds left on the clock to seal a 69-69 victory. They notched their first double-digit victory of the tournament with a 78-62 win over No. 9 Kansas State in the Elite Eight. In the Final Four, the Michigan Wolverines rallied back from a halftime deficit to put an end to the Ramblers' Cinderalla run.
No. 15 Saint Peter’s (2022)
The Saint Peter’s Peacocks entered the 2022 NCAA Tournament as the No. 15 seed. With no March Madness victories in program history, they should’ve just been happy to be there. Instead, they refused to be remembered as a mere footnote in March Madness history.
The Peacocks stunned the No. 2 seed Kentucky Wildcats with a 85-79 victory in the opening round. They defeated the No. 7 seed Murray State in the second round, snapping the Racers’ 21-game win streak. Then, Saint Peter’s battled to a 67-64 victory over No. 3 seed Purdue in the Sweet 16 to become the first No. 15 seed to make it to the Elite Eight. The Peacocks’ storybook run came to an end against North Carolina, one win short of the Final Four.
How often do low seeds make deep runs in March Madness?
Seed | Final Four appearances | Championship appearances | Championship wins |
|---|---|---|---|
No. 1 | 62 | 39 | 25 |
No. 2 | 32 | 12 | 5 |
No. 3 | 17 | 12 | 4 |
No. 4 | 15 | 4 | 2 |
No. 5 | 9 | 4 | 0 |
No. 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
No. 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
No. 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
No. 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
No. 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
No. 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
No. 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
While Cinderella teams are common, the stories typically don’t end favorably. The best teams earn the No. 1 seed for a reason, and that often shows in the results of the tournament. Twenty-five of the 39 national champions have been No. 1 seeds, accounting for nearly two-thirds of all national champions since the 64-team expansion in 1985, per NCAA. The top seeds have also produced 13 of the past 17 titles — a staggering 76.5 percent.
No. 1 seeds have made 62 appearances in the Final Four and 39 appearances in the championship game. The next three seeds have combined for 64 trips to the Final Four and 28 trips to the championship.
The No. 1 seeds find frequent success, but all four top seeds rarely make a deep run in the same tournament. The 2008 NCAA Tournament featured all four No. 1 seeds — Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA — in the Final Four. It was the only time all four No. 1 seeds made it to the semifinals.
Syracuse became the first No. 10 seed to make it to the Final Four in 2016. Oddly enough, six No. 11 seeds have made it to the Final Four: 1986 LSU, 2006 George Mason, 2011 VCU, 2018 Loyola Chicago, 2021 UCLA and 2024 NC State.