There's been no bigger NBA story this year than the trade that sent Luka Dončić from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers. Even nearly two months after the deal was completed, the league is still reeling from it, not only for the way it has improved the Lakers' title chances this year, but for the way in which it set them up for years to come in preparation for the day that LeBron James eventually hangs them up.
Luka took his time getting his groove back when he first suited up in the purple and gold, but it was for a good reason — he had to work his way back into game shape after straining his calf on Christmas. Once he got up to speed though, he's looked just like his All-NBA self by putting up 27.6 points, 8.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists in 20 games.
Unfortunately, those 20 games, combined with the 22 he played for the Mavericks, don't give him a chance to become eligible for any postseason awards. That's because of the rule implemented by the league last year that states that a player must play in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible to win MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, or be named to an All-NBA team.
Luka's 42 games played is just simply not enough to be eligible, not with only nine games left in the Lakers' season. It's a shame for one of the very best players in the league, but this is the new reality we're living in.
Looking back at Luka's career, he's straddled that 65-game line with regularity. In all seven seasons before this one, he's played between 61 and 72 games. Three times, he's played either 65 or 66. Going forward, he'll need to be slightly more durable, though of course the Lakers and Luka himself would gladly trade some awards consideration in order to have him healthy enough to hang some more banners in Crypto.com Arena.
This year's chase for the MVP is a two-horse race between three-time winner Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the leader of the league-leading 60-12 Thunder. Jokic is top three in the league in points, rebounds and assists, while SGA is leading the league with 32.8 points per game, plus he's the best player on the best team.
Even if Luka played enough, he wouldn't be able to crack top two, but where would he rank if he had enough games played? Let's go through the other top candidates and find out.
Luka vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo
I'm not sure why Giannis Antetokounmpo has been unable to finish better than third in the MVP race since winning back-to-back awards in 2019 and 2020, but the Greek Freak is as good as he's ever been. This year he's second in the league in scoring with 30.2 points per game, sixth in rebounding with 12 boards per game, and he makes his teammates better with 5.9 assists per game.
Giannis is also one of the best defenders in the league. This is his one major edge over Jokic, and it's a big one over Luka, too. Other than with his assist numbers, Luka trails Giannis in most other major categories, and Giannis has that big defensive edge. He does have Damian Lillard, but overall it's a worse supporting cast around him in Milwaukee than Luka has around him in L.A.
Advantage: Giannis
Luka vs. Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum is another player that is underappreciated in his time. He doesn't have the physical gifts that Giannis does, but then again, nobody does. Instead, Tatum is the most reliable star in the league. He doesn't miss games, he doesn't cause drama, and he's the best player on the defending champs, who are once again well on their way with a 54-19 record.
Tatum's durability has to count in his favor, even if we're extrapolating Luka's stats as if he had played 65 games. The Celtics forward has already played in 66, and he's played 74 or more in five of his previous seven seasons. Stats-wise, he's right there too. Luka is averaging .8 more points per game, while Tatum has .3 more rebounds. Luka leads by 1.8 assists.
Luka turns it over more, but he's also been a slighty better 3-point shooter this season. In short, the numbers are pretty much a wash. That's why Tatum wins this one, because he has the edge in durability and defense, and his team has over a 72 percent winning percentage when he plays this year, compared to less than 60 percent for Luka.
Advantage: Tatum
Luka vs. Donovan Mitchell
Now it's getting close. Donovan Mitchell's numbers are actually slightly down this year, but anyone that's been watching his Cavs know that he's sacrificed his own personal stats for the betterment of the team. Mitchell and everyone else have bought into new head coach Kenny Atkinson's system, and the results have been undeniable.
Cleveland is 59-14 and a lock for first place in the East. They've also become the first team in 18 years to have two winning streaks of at least 15 games in the regular season. Stats are nice, but MVP voters still tend to go with a player from one of the top teams in the league, which puts Mitchell on the shortlist.
Mitchell's stats are still quite good, even if they aren't quite on Luka's level. He's averaging 23.7 points, 4.3 rebound and 4.8 assists, but he's also doing it in a career-low 31.2 minutes per game. That's by design to keep him fresh for the postseason, and because the Cavs have frequently been up by so much that he hasn't been needed in many fourth quarters. That can't be held against him, and in fact should work in his favor. This one is ultra close, but the little things matter.
Advantage: Mitchell
Luka vs. Jaylen Brunson
It seems that Luka would be outside the top five, but how about sixth? Jaylen Brunson of the Knicks is the next guy in line, and fittingly, he's Luka's former teammate in Dallas. Brunson has blossomed since signing with the Knicks in 2022, becoming one of the players that is most indispensable to their teams.
Luka has a slight edge on Brunson in scoring and assists, and he pulls down nearly triple the rebounds per game as his former backcourt mate. From an efficiency standpoint though, Brunson looks better, as he shoots 49 percent from the floor compared to Luka's 41.8, and he turns it over only 2.5 times per game compared to Luka's 4.3, despite having the ball in his hands just as much.
This is another really close one, but unlike some of the other names on this list, Brunson doesn't have the defensive chops to overcome a statistical disadvantage, and his team isn't markedly better.
Advantage: Luka
So there you have it. It's a bit of a woulda, coulda, shoulda, but Luka would be sixth in the MVP voting if that calf strain hadn't forced him to miss so much time.