March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, Last four in

The holidays have come and gone, setting us back into the grind of a harsh winter and reality for workers. January also brings with it the start of conference play in college basketball, which also means it's time for the return of FanSided's weekly Bubble Watch update.

Publishing on Wednesdays from now through Champ Week, Bubble Watch will examine the 16 teams closest to the cut line and see who is trending towards the dance and who has some work to do to feel more comfortable before Selection Sunday. Without any further ado, let's dive into the Bubble Watch, beginning with the last four teams to secure a bye outside of the First Four.

Note: All rankings, won-loss records and metrics are current as of the conclusion of games on Tuesday, 1/7. Strength of schedule metrics are based on KenPom's totals. All conference leaders are considered to be automatic qualifiers for this exercise and not eligible.

March Madness Bubble Watch: Last four byes

As you can see, bubble resumes are bubble resumes for a variety of reasons. Louisville being on the page is a big positive after the disastrous Kenny Payne era and they challenged themselves outside of league play, which should set the Cardinals up for success in an average ACC.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has sterling schedule numbers because they played a lot of tough opponents in non-conference play but have just one Quad 1 win to show for it against UCLA at Madison Square Garden. The hope here is that, like Louisville, the heavy lifting in non-conference play toughened up the Tar Heels to stack wins in the ACC.

Two Big 12 foes round out this section with Cincinnati and Texas Tech pairing good NET ratings (or great in the case of Texas Tech) with lousy non-conference schedules that could leave them ill-prepared for league play. The Bearcats are already struggling to the tune of an 0-3 start while the Red Raiders have an opportunity to offset two Quad 3 losses with a home win over No. 3 Iowa State on Saturday.

March Madness Bubble Watch: Last four in

Vanderbilt has been one of the season's biggest surprises, racing to a 13-2 record in its first 15 games, but a very soft non-conference schedule may be a sign the coaching staff didn't believe they'd be SEC contenders so soon. Saturday's tilt against Missouri is an important early season bubble matchup for the conference.

The Arizona schools have put themselves in decent positions in their first year as Big 12 members, but both have had trouble against elite competition, posting a combined 3-8 record in Quad 1 games. The Wildcats made a big step in that department by annihilating No. 1 West Virginia in Morgantown while the Sun Devils have the unenviable task of trying to score a road win at Allen Fieldhouse on Saturday.

Texas has all the talent to be an NCAA Tournament team but they did themselves no favors by racking up 10 useless wins against the bottom two quadrants with mostly buy games at home. The SEC has delivered a rude awakening to the Longhorns, who got the top two teams in the poll coming to their building this week and could be staring 0-3 in league play in the face if they can't hand No. 1 Tennessee a second straight defeat.

March Madness Bubble Watch: Last four out

Penn State and Missouri have very similar storylines as each played a lousy non-conference schedule and top their resume with a Quad 1 home win (Purdue for the Nittany Lions and Kansas for the Tigers). That kind of resume leaves little margin for error in league play so don't be shocked if both schools are hovering around the bubble for most of the next two months if they can't stack conference wins.

Creighton's resume is a lighter version of North Carolina's as they have played a lot of good teams with a worse Quad 1 win at home against St. John's. The talent is there for Creighton to push themselves about the bubble fray but the Bluejays have to avoid landmine losses in a weaker Big East than normal.

Saint Mary's did decent work outside of league play but their metrics are more bubbly than usual. The additions of Oregon State and Washington State to the WCC for this season give them more opportunities for quality wins they need to take advantage of to feel more secure in their position.

Bubble Watch: Next Four Out

SMU's first year as an ACC member has them in a decent bubble position but they lost to Duke and North Carolina in their last two games, which is unfortunate since it's the only time they play both schools this season. With decent schedule numbers and metrics, the Mustangs have a path to climb the bubble with a gaudy win total in league play.

Indiana began the year ranked but fell out early although its three losses (Gonzaga and Louisville on neutral floors and at Nebraska) all rank in the Quad 1 department. The Big Ten isn't as daunting as the Big 12 or SEC so there is room for the Hoosiers to make some noise.

BYU, like a lot of mid-tier Big 12 programs, loaded up on cupcakes in the non-conference portion of the schedule with the knowledge they'd have opportunities to add quality wins in league play. Failing to snag a Quad 1 win to this point has left BYU with an empty-feeling 10-4 record, making any significant Big 12 wins (particularly ones on the road) the key to their resume.

New Mexico rounds out the list with a strong start in Mountain West play and a good win over UCLA back in November, but losing at home to New Mexico State adds a Quad 4 anchor this resume will need to overcome. Saturday's nationally televised home date with San Diego State offers a massive opportunity for the Lobos to offset that loss with another quality win.