The concept of the bubble in college basketball isn't tightly defined but merely a general term describing teams that could make the NCAA Tournament in a given year. The teams on said bubble have flaws that separate them from the true locks, whether that come in the form of poor predictive metrics, a lack of quality wins, too many losses, or a combo platter of any number of the elements the tournament's selection committee considers ahead of Selection Sunday.
The relative strength of the bubble is different from year to year and can be impacted by factors such as bid thieves, a true separation between the haves and have nots in the power conferences, and the strength of competition in the sport as a whole. Last season's bubble was an incredibly strong one as three bid thieves shrunk the at-large pool significantly, leaving tournament-worthy teams like St. John's, Seton Hall and Indiana State left out of the field.
Things look much softer in 2025 as the bubble is as weak as ever, with a bunch of teams near the cut line today that wouldn't have been within 20 spots of the field in 2024. Given how little it takes to earn a bid this year, a big result (such as Georgia's upset win over No. 3 Florida on Tuesday night) can be the difference between hearing your name called on Selection Sunday or getting left at the altar.
How do things stand on the bubble as February is set to come to a close on Friday? Read on to find out in the latest edition of FanSided's Bubble Watch.
Note: Team records, NET ratings and metrics are current as of the conclusion of games played on Tuesday, Feb. 25. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Teams currently leading their respective conference are considered to be automatic qualifiers for the purposes of this exercise and are not eligible for Bubble Watch discussion.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes
Team | San Diego State | Vanderbilt | West Virginia | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Mountain West | SEC | Big 12 | SEC |
Record | 19-7 (12-5) | 18-9 (6-8) | 17-11 (8-9) | 17-10 (4-10) |
NET | 49 | 43 | 45 | 51 |
Quad 1 Record | 4-5 | 3-8 | 5-8 | 5-8 |
Quad 2 Record | 4-1 | 4-1 | 3-3 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-1 | 11-0 | 9-0 | 9-1 |
Strength Of Schedule | 60 | 38 | 41 | 29 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 8 | 341 | 136 | 324 |
Last Game | W 73-65 Vs. New Mexico | W 77-72 Vs. No. 24 Ole Miss | W 73-55 Vs. TCU | W 93-87 Vs. No. 21 Mississippi State |
Next Game | At Wyoming 3/1 | At No. 12 Texas A&M 2/26 | At No. 25 BYU 3/1 | Vs. No. 17 Kentucky 2/26 |
Tuesday night's win over New Mexico was a big one for San Diego State, which now adds a fourth Quad 1 win to its resume and has strong scheduling numbers backing up their resume. Avoiding a bad loss in Mountain West play (potential landmines are ahead with a two-game road trip to Wyoming and UNLV) should leave the Aztecs in a secure spot entering the conference tournament.
Vanderbilt's victory over Ole Miss on Saturday was a much-needed third Quad 1 victory for the Commodores, but they remain vulnerable because of their weak non-conference schedule and the fact that their three biggest wins (Tennessee, Kentucky and Ole Miss) have all come at home. The NCAA Tournament won't be played at Memorial Gymnasium, so Vanderbilt would be well-advised to snag a key road win at No. 12 Texas A&M on Wednesday to further solidify their position.
An 18-point win over TCU was big for West Virginia, which could not afford to get swept by the Horned Frogs in Big 12 play. The good news here for the Mountaineers is that their remaining schedule is manageable (a trip to No. 25 BYU on Saturday, at Utah on Monday and hosting UCF on March 8) so that a .500 finish in conference play is easily attainable with a 2-1 performance in those games.
Fewer teams needed a quality result more than Oklahoma did on Saturday when they beat No. 21 Mississippi State at home to show they can beat teams outside the SEC's cellar. Non-conference victories over Michigan and Louisville have aged nicely to give the Sooners five Quad 1 wins at this juncture, which should have them in a safe spot if they can split their last four SEC games (Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Missouri, at Texas) before the conference tournament.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In
Team | Ohio State | Nebraska | Georgia | George Mason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big Ten | SEC | Atlantic 10 |
Record | 15-13 (7-10) | 17-11 (7-10) | 17-11 (5-10) | 21-6 (12-2) |
NET | 35 | 53 | 36 | 65 |
Quad 1 Record | 5-9 | 5-9 | 3-11 | 1-3 |
Quad 2 Record | 3-4 | 4-2 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 7-0 | 8-0 | 11-0 | 16-2 |
Strength Of Schedule | 11 | 23 | 19 | 122 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 85 | 247 | 312 | 309 |
Last Game | L 69-61 At UCLA | L 49-46 Vs. No. 15 Michigan | W 88-83 Vs. No. 3 Florida | L 70-54 At VCU |
Next Game | At USC 2/26 | Vs. Minnesota 3/1 | At Texas 3/1 | Vs. Fordham 2/26 |
The Buckeyes are a fascinating conversation for the committee because they have elite scheduling metrics and have played just seven games outside of the Top 2 quadrants while adding five Quad 1 wins to boot. The issue is that they have 13 total losses already, and with the assumption they will gain another in the Big Ten Tournament you would have to potentially accept a 15 loss team if Ohio State loses one of its last three (at USC, Nebraska, at Indiana), making their standing shaky.
Nebraska has the same Quad 1 record as Ohio State but is ceding ground rapidly after losing by 17 at home to Penn State before putting up just 46 points in a loss at No. 15 Michigan on Monday. Their group of Quad 1 wins (at Creighton, at Oregon, Illinois, UCLA, at Northwestern) isn't aging paritcularly well, so finding a way to win at Ohio State next week may be necessary to avoid the need for significant work at the Big Ten Tournament.
Tuesday night's win over No. 3 Florida was a huge one for Georgia, which now is back on the right side of the cut line and has three very strong Quad 1A wins (Florida, Kentucky and St. John's in the Bahamas back in November) that make a compelling case for their inclusion in the field. 11 losses is a bit tricky, however, so consolidating their gains from the Gators win with a road victory at Texas on Saturday would be a very good idea for the Bulldogs.
VCU's win over George Mason last week allows them to trade spots with the Patriots, who are right on the cut line as a potential at-large team. A pair of one-point losses in non-conference play (vs. Central Michigan and at East Carolina) are the two big blemishes on George Mason's resume, which could doom them if they can't win the A-10's auto bid.
March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out
Team | Arkansas | Indiana | Wake Forest | Xavier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | SEC | Big Ten | ACC | Big East |
Record | 16-11 (5-9) | 16-11 (7-9) | 19-8 (11-5) | 18-10 (10-7) |
NET | 40 | 56 | 64 | 52 |
Quad 1 Record | 4-9 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 1-8 |
Quad 2 Record | 1-2 | 3-0 | 5-1 | 5-2 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 9-0 | 12-1 | 12-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 18 | 20 | 66 | 57 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 260 | 142 | 224 | 208 |
Last Game | W 92-85 Vs. No. 15 Missouri | W 73-58 Vs. No. 13 Purdue | L 85-73 At NC State | W 73-68 At Seton Hall |
Next Game | Vs. Texas 2/26 | Vs. Penn State 2/26 | Vs. Notre Dame 3/1 | Vs. Creighton 3/1 |
Arkansas is the first team out of the field, essentially getting bumped for Georgia here, since their resume is a bit inferior to the Bulldogs due to their Quad 1 wins being slightly less impressive than Georgia's. There is time for the Razorbacks to get back over the cut line and a win at Texas on Wednesday night would be a good one to add to their resume.
Mike Woodson may be on his way out at Indiana but the Hoosiers are trying hard to send him off with a tournament appearance, significantly bolstering their resume over the past two weeks with a road win at Michigan State and blowing out Purdue by 15 at home. While Indiana would love to have road losses at Iowa (by 25) and Northwestern back, their last four games (Penn State, at Washington, at Oregon, Ohio State) offer opportunities to offset some of those defeats.
When you're a bubble team in a bad ACC, you can't lose on the road by 12 to a team that entered the game with a 10-16 record and 3-12 figure in league play. That is exactly what Wake Forest did on Saturday, which is not a good ingredient to pair with a loss at Florida State, meaning the Demon Deacons have significant work to do to get above the cut line on Selection Sunday.
Xavier avoided a disastrous loss at Seton Hall to improve to 10-7 in Big East play, but their 1-8 Quad 1 record is a problem since they won't get an opportunity to add to it during the regular season since Saturday's visit from Creighton falls into the Quad 2 category. The state of affairs here means that Xavier needs to stay in the 4-5 game in the Big East Tournament, where they would get one of the league's best teams on a neutral floor with an opportunity to add another Quad 1 victory beofre Selection Sunday.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out
Team | North Carolina | Boise State | SMU | Villanova |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Mountain West | ACC | Big East |
Record | 18-11 (11-6) | 19-8 (11-5) | 20-7 (11-5) | 16-12 (9-8) |
NET | 44 | 47 | 41 | 50 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-10 | 3-5 | 0-5 | 2-6 |
Quad 2 Record | 6-0 | 3-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-1 | 12-2 | 15-0 | 10-3 |
Strength Of Schedule | 31 | 80 | 84 | 67 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 7 | 118 | 273 | 337 |
Last Game | W 96-85 At Florida State | W 70-69 At Nevada | L 79-69 Vs. No. 18 Clemson | W 81-66 Vs. No. 16 Marquette |
Next Game | Vs. Miami 3/1 | Vs. Utah State 2/26 | At California 2/26 | At Seton Hall 2/26 |
Despite some bracketologists continuing to advance North Carolina for merely winning games against bad ACC competition, a resume whose lone highlight is a two-point victory against UCLA on a neutral floor in December isn't a tournament-worthy resume. Hubert Davis deserves credit for scheduling hard in the non-conference season, but the Tar Heels needed to find a way to win some of those games, and a failure to secure more than one Quad 1 while carrying a Quad 3 home loss to Stanford means there is still plenty to do here.
Boise State remains in this range thanks to a win over New Mexico (which goes nicely with non-conference victories over Saint Mary's and Clemson that are aging tremendously), but losing to Boston College in the year 2025 with so-so metrics is not a good idea. Securing a split of the season series with Utah State on Wednesday night would push the Broncos into First Four out range and set them up for a potential run in the Mountain West Tournament.
There may not be a more empty-calorie resume in the history of the bubble than SMU's, which is 15-0 against teams outside of the top two quadrants and blew its last regular season opportunity for a Quad 1 win with a 10-point home loss to No. 18 Clemson on Saturday. With four games left on their schedule that offer no help in that department (the California trip plus a home game against Syracuse and a trip to Florida State), the Mustangs will show up at the ACC Tournament as the potential owners of the least impressive 24-7 record a power conference team can buy.
A 15-point win over Marquette somehow has kept Villanova on this page, which now adds a second Quad 1 victory to its ledger after beating St. John's at home in the previous week. The fact that the Wildcats are here despite having a non-conference schedule in the 330's and losing three games against it (Columbia at home, St. Joseph's and a bad Virginia team) is an indicator of how bad the bubble is.