Every March Madness survivor pool is now underway after the First Round gave us some thrills and chills on Thursday. Hopefully you hadn't picked Clemson in your survivor pool, or Missouri for that matter (that's not on us — we told you to pick Drake!). If you're still alive, though, it's now onto the Friday First Round action.
We're still alive based on our March Madness survivor pool picks from Thursday after officially taking St. John's. The Red Storm gave us a scare in the first half but dominated the second half to get the win comfortably. You'd have been good taking any of our picks, though, as Auburn, Wisconsin and Drake all came through as well.
So who should you risk your March Madness survivor pool livelihood on for Friday's action? We have that plus the teams you should keep in your bag and the ones you shouldn't touch for the finale of First Round action.
Teams to hold onto in your March Madness survivor pool
1 Florida (vs. 16 Norfolk State)
Considering that a matchup with the reigning champs, UConn, could be looming in the Second Round, I could understand wanting to just use Florida right now. The Gators are a better team than the Huskies, though, and obviously come into the tourney riding a hot streak. I don't think that's going to up and end quickly, so keep Florida in the holster for a bit longer.
1 Duke (vs. 16 Mount St. Mary's)
Once again, Duke is primed for a deep NCAA Tournament run, especially once Cooper Flagg gets back to 100%. The Blue Devils are absolutely going to overwhelm The Mount on Friday but there's a high, high chance that they are able to do that throughout the entirety of the first week of March Madness as well.
Teams to avoid in your March Madness survivor pool
5 Oregon (vs. 12 Liberty)
Make no mistake, Oregon is the better team in this matchup — but they're not enough better than a Liberty team that ranks Top 50 in offensive efficiency and 76th in defensive efficiency to feel great about the Ducks. The book on Dana Altman's team this season has unfortunately been picking up wins against the top-tier opponents but losing too many games against inferior opponents. Doesn't that seem like the opposite of what you'd want in a 5-12 March Madness matchup? Agreed, so let's stay off the Ducks on Friday.
6 Illinois (vs. 11 Xavier)
I'm of the belief that Illinois, if they play to their ceiling, is capable of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The worrying part about that is the Illini haven't done that consistently at so many points in the 2024-25 season. So playing against a Xavier team that's both talented and already has a little momentum after the First Four is terrifying because of that. I'll probably be willing to roll the dice with Illinois down the line, but definitely not in this spot until I see where they're at.
6 Ole Miss and 11 North Carolina
There's just no way that you should be taking either of these teams in this spot. Predictive metrics shouldn't be the end all, be all when it comes to filling out the March Madness bracket on Selection Sunday but they damn well matter when the tournament starts, as Gonzaga showed Georgia on Thursday. North Carolina and Ole Miss are just a few spots apart in terms of KenPom overall efficiency, which makes this game feel super toss-uppy, and that's not the route to success in a survivor pool.
March Madness survival pool picks for First Round Friday
4 Arizona (vs. 13 Akron)
Despite the up-and-down nature that Arizona has displayed throughout this season, I trust them quite a lot in this spot simply based on the matchup with Akron. The Zips were great in the MAC, no doubt, but this team ranks outside of the Top 175 in defensive efficiency this season. The Wildcats, meanwhile, come in as the No. 12 team in offensive efficiency. With a Top 40 defense on Arizona's side as well, I have a hard time imagining Akron is able to keep up in this one.
2 Alabama (vs. 15 Robert Morris)
There's a case to be made for holding onto Alabama a bit longer than this but, if you're a bit scared of the No. 4 seeds (something I wouldn't blame you for), this is where I'd be looking. The Crimson Tide showed last season they have the potential to make a Final Four run and I believe they can do it again. However, their pace and reliance on offense leads to inherent volatility. That's not something I'm worried about against Robert Morris, a group that I don't think can last 40 minutes with Bama, but it could bite the Tide down the line, which is why you'd use them now as a surer thing.
4 Maryland (vs. 13 Grand Canyon)
The "Crab Five" and Maryland seem like they might be slightly flying under the radar coming into March Madness, but they definitely shouldn't be. While I'm not particularly worried about how the Terps find ways to score in this one, I'm most confident in this team's ability to shut down Grand Canyon. The Antelopes are just No. 152 in offensive efficiency in the country this season while the Terrapins are the sixth-best team in defensive efficiency. The bottom of the net could be a stranger on Friday for Grand Canyon.
The boldest March Madness survivor pool pick to make on Thursday
8 UConn (vs. 9 Oklahoma)
Though it will always work out for one side, picking the 8-9 or 7-10 matchups for a survivor pool in the First Round seems a bit too loosey goosey given the stakes. When it comes to UConn, however, I'm at least somewhat inclined to believe this is a spot that could pay off. The Huskies haven't found consistent form basically since Maui and Oklahoma is basically just a slightly worse mirror-image of Dan Hurley's team — great offense, middling-at-best defense. This one could be a barn-burner but, in a matchup of similar teams, it almost doesn't feel too bold to back the back-to-back national champs.
Official Pick: 4 Arizona (vs. Akron)