We're just one day away from the Sweet 16 and, if you've been following me for your March Madness survivor pool picks, you're also just one game away from surviving into the second weekend of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Even better, we're in a great spot with one of the No. 2 seeds we used in the First Round, St. John's, getting the win there but then getting ousted by Arkansas. That's a sign of some nice strategy for us.
That strategy can't go out of the window now, however. One of the great things that we've been able to get by with to this point is holding onto the No. 1 seeds. Houston feels particularly big in that one, especially now that they're past Gonzaga. Auburn, on the other hand, has shown some causes for concern, which could make that a bust in some capacity. Either way, I like we're at.
So what does that mean for Sunday's Second Round action for your March Madness survivor pool picks? We'll again start with a couple of teams you could use but should probably hold onto instead, as well as teams to outright avoid before we get to the teams you should actually be picking on Sunday in the Round of 32.
Teams already picked: St. John's, Arizona, Tennessee
Team to hold onto in your March Madness survivor pool
1 Florida (vs. 8 UConn)
I'll be honest, there's at least a small part of me that looks at UConn and is scared of this matchup. This is Dan Hurley and a program that holds the title of reigning back-to-back national champions. There's something that happens to the Huskies in March. At the same time, Florida now has a wide-open path ahead with St. John's getting ousted and, with the way the Gators have been playing, that's right in their favor. Furthermore, Florida comes into March Madness as the most efficient offensive team in the country while UConn is outside the Top 80 in defense according to KenPom. Hold onto the Gators just a bit longer.
1 Duke (vs. 9 Baylor)
While the path isn't as open for Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils as it is for Florida in bottom-left quadrant of the bracket, there's still a case to be made for holding onto Duke. Baylor should be a matchup in which Jon Scheyer's team rolls, especially given their maddening inconsistency throughout the season and what that could mean as they come off of an impressive win over Mississippi State. Even still, Duke looks like it's clicking on all cylinders and could simply not lose a game in the NCAA Tournament. Hang onto them, because they likely aren't going anywhere.
Teams to avoid in your March Madness survivor pool
2 Alabama (vs. 7 Saint Mary's)
Alabama definitely gave us a bit of a scare as a No. 2 seed by allowing Robert Morris to largely hang around for the entire 40 minutes in the First Round. That'll happen given the brand of basketball the Crimson Tide play, especially with Grant Nelson's questionable or spotty health right now. Now, they go into one of the most drastic stylistic clashes possible, a Saint Mary's team that ranks outside the Top 350 in tempo against the fastest team in the country. I do think Bama gets the win but there are enough factors involved in that to not risk it in a survivor pool.
6 Illinois or 3 Kentucky
It's truly hilarious to look at the matchup between Illinois and Kentucky on KenPom because these two teams are so scarily similar to one another. They sit right beside one another in the overall rankings with the Illini at No. 16 and the Wildcats at No. 17 while Illinois is 14th on offense and 41st on defense. Kentucky, meanwhile, is 11th on offense and 54th on defense. This is a Spider-Man meme game with the two sides pointing at one another, which makes it quite difficult to confidently pick a side as it just come down to any given March Madness game.
March Madness survival pool picks for Second Round Saturday
4 Maryland (vs. 12 Colorado State)
There's a lot to like with this Maryland team and Colorado State's upset over Memphis now presents the perfect opportunity to take the "Crab Five" and feel great about it. The Rams are one of the hottest teams in the country, sure, but we've seen how dismal the Mountain West overall has been in this tournament. Memphis was in a weird spot but the Terps present a bad matchup, playing at a substantially faster pace but doing so with the sixth-best defense according to KenPom (and a Top 25 offense as well). It may be a fun one, but I think Maryland just asserts themselves behind Derik Queen and Co.
2 Michigan State (vs. 10 New Mexico)
Make no mistake, there are going to be some people who actually like Richard Pitino and the Lobos to pull off this upset given that Michigan State, at times, has gone a bit cold offensively. These two teams play relatively similar brands of basketball with a more potent defense than offense. However, the big deciding factor for me is that New Mexico plays at a Top 6 tempo in the country while Tom Izzo and the Spartans slow that down to outside the Top 150. With more talent for Sparty, I like them to win the pace battle and ultimately just out-man the Lobos to get this win and punch a ticket to the Sweet 16.
Official Pick: 4 Maryland (vs. 12 Colorado State)