The field for the 2025 NCAA Tournament is set and while there may still be lingering controversy about key snubs (like North Carolina getting the last spot in the field over West Virginia), the madness will truly begin once the first round kicks off on Thursday. While there are logical reasons to go all chalk in the field since the higher-seeded teams are more polished, a one-and-done tournament like March Madness tends to produce plenty of drama.
Upsets are a big part of the game and every year seems to produce at least one insane shocker that leaves all of America with their jaw on the floor. Who are the best candidates to wear Cinderella's slipper and send one of the top dogs home early? Let's go region by region and take a look at the most likely upset picks in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
March Madness Upset Picks - South Region
No. 12 UC San Diego Over No. 5 Michigan
While Michigan won the Big Ten Tournament, the selection committee did them no favors by placing the Wolverines on the 5-line while the team they beat, Wisconsin, got a 3-seed. To make matters worse for the maize and blue, they got the most dangerous 12-seed in the field in UC San Diego, which won 30 games out of the Big West and was a legitimate at-large candidate if they had lost their championship game to UC Irvine.
Even though this is the first year that the Tritons were eligible for the NCAA Tournament, this is not an inexperienced team. Eric Olen's group has six players who have scored at least 1,000 career points on the roster, which is an absurd level of depth, and UC San Diego already scored a nice road win at Utah State in non-conference play.
While the Big Ten Tournament title was a nice boon for Michigan's resume, it may be a bit of a curse since the last three teams to claim that crown failed to make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Flying to Denver for this game won't help either as the Wolverines will have to deal with an adjustment to altitude, making them ripe for an upset at the hands of the Triton.
No. 11 (First Four Winner) Over No. 6 Ole Miss
If you are looking for a trend to follow when picking your upsets, back a First Four winner to get to the Round of 32. 12 of the last 13 tournaments have seen at least one First Four participant win in the first round, including last season when Colorado knocked out Florida in a thriller.
This season's most trendy First Four upset pick will come out of the North Carolina/San Diego State winner taking on Ole Miss. While the top of the SEC is elite, the conference's second tier of teams is vulnerable to getting upset and the Rebels were sluggish down the stretch, dropping five of their last eight games.
North Carolina may not have deserved a tournament bid according to most bracketologists but they are still playing excellent basketball with enough talent to win multiple games in the field. San Diego State is also a dangerous foe with an elite defense that was good enough to take down Houston on a neutral floor in November, providing a very tough draw for Ole Miss to try and navigate.
March Madness Upset Picks - East Region
No. 10 Vanderbilt Over No. 7 Saint Mary's
There are few teams in the country better on the defensive end than Saint Mary's, which won the West Coast Conference's regular season title with a pair of wins over Gonzaga on the strength of a defense that is the eighth-best in the country according to KenPom. Offense is more of a challenge for the West Coast Gaels, who average just 73.5 points per game and play at a very slow tempo (359th in the country per Ken Pom), leaving them vulnerable to getting picked off in a tight game.
Landing Vanderbilt as their 10-seed was a brutal draw for Saint Mary's since the Commodores are a battle-tested SEC outfit with two dynamic guards in Jason Edwards and former Michigan State star A.J. Hoggard. The SEC was a good incubator for the Commodores, who scored wins over three teams (Tennessee, Kentucky, and Texas A&M) that landed on the top four lines of the bracket.
While a 10 over a 7 is a more mild upset, the Gaels' play style leaves them more vulnerable to getting picked off if their shots aren't falling. With some elite shotmakers on Vanderbilt's side, the odds are good that they will sink enough baskets to send Saint Mary's home on Friday.
March Madness Upset Picks - Midwest Region
No. 13 High Point Over No. 4 Purdue
Matt Painter's team is no stranger to March Madness disappointments, last year's run to the national title game not-withstanding. Despite having lofty seeds in the dance, Purdue has gone out in the Round of 64 in two of the previous four tournaments, including to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson back in 2023.
The Boilermakers didn't play well down the stretch, dropping four in a row in mid-February and getting run off the floor by Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals. That stretch of poor play leaves Purdue in danger of getting upset by High Point, which is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance after a 29-win showing out of the Big South.
The Panthers are red-hot, having won 14 straight entering the tournament, and average over 82 points per game as proof they can keep up with a high-flying Boilermakers attack. There is also some serious talent on High Points' roster, including one-time Kansas guard Bobby Pettiford, that make the Panthers a more dangerous 13-seed than you would expect.
March Madness Upsets - West Region
No. 12 Colorado State Over No. 5 Memphis
It wouldn't be March if you didn't see a 12-seed knock out a 5, and this year's top candidate to get picked off on this seed line is Memphis. The Tigers did some great work in non-conference play but struggled to get through the American unscathed, losing key guard Tyrese Hunter for the remainder of the season in the process.
Drawing Colorado State as a 12-seed is also unfortunate because the Rams are on fire as the lone bid thief in this year's field. The Rams stormed through the Mountain West Tournament to earn their spot in the field and have a game-wrecker in Nique Clifford, who averages 19 points per game and is a legitimate NBA prospect.
While there were valid concerns with Colorado State early in the season, they have gelled as a group now and are red hot at the right time. Asking the Tigers to adjust to the loss of Hunter in a one-and-done situation with a game opponent is a lot so don't be shocked if Hunter's absence essentially ends Memphis' season here.
No. 11 Drake Over No. 6 Missouri
Another interesting SEC team in the bracket is Missouri, which looked like a Final Four threat in mid-February with wins over Kansas, Florida, both Mississippi schools and Alabama on their resume. The Tigers cooled off significantly down the stretch, dropping six of their last eight games to drop to the 6-line in the dance.
The committee rewarded the Tigers with a very dangerous 11-seed in Drake, which won 30 games out of the Missouri Valley and was a legitimate at-large candidate if they had fallen to Bradley in the final of Arch Madness. The Bulldogs also have a bona fide star in guard Bennett Stirz, who averaged 19.1 points per game and 5.7 assists per game during the regular season.
Simply put, the Bulldogs are a battle-tested side that has plenty of experience in crunch time and plays tremendous defense, allowing just 58.4 points per game. Missouri's defense is also a weakness, which could allow Stirz to put Drake on his back and march on to the Round of 32.
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