Last season, we saw the Brian Kelly pop year come and go in Baton Rouge. Year three for him ended up being more of the same, as opposed to the LSU Tigers rising to the occasion like Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Central Michigan all previously did under Kelly's guidance. Pop years are still very much a thing in college football. The most notable candidate to watch attempt to do it this year is Matt Rhule.
Rhule enters year three leading the Nebraska Cornhuskers after previously failing in Charlotte with the NFL's Carolina Panthers. In Rhule's two previous stabs at being a college football head coach, year three is where things really clicked for him at Temple and most definitely at Baylor. If all goes according to plan, Nebraska will win around 10 or 11 games like 2015-16 Temple and 2019 Baylor did.
It usually starts with the first team under Rhule's reign being pitiful. The 2013 Temple Owls went 2-10 before going 6-6 the following year. The 2017 Baylor Bears went a dreadful 1-11 before going 7-6 the ensuing campaign. But in year three, that is when it clicks for him ... in college. After a pair of five-win seasons with the 2020-21 Panthers, Rhule was fired after a 1-4 start in 2022.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at Nebraska's 2025 schedule to see where the wins might be.
Date | Opponent | Location |
|---|---|---|
Aug. 28 | vs. Cincinnati Bearcats | Kansas City, MO |
Sept. 6 | vs. Akron Zips | Lincoln, NE |
Sept. 13 | vs. Houston Christian Huskies | Lincoln, NE |
Sept. 20 | vs. Michigan Wolverines | Lincoln, NE |
Sept. 27 | BYE | |
Oct. 4 | vs. Michigan State Spartans | Lincoln, NE |
Oct. 11 | at Maryland Terrapins | College Park, MD |
Oct. 18 | at Minnesota Golden Gophers | Minneapolis, MN |
Oct. 25 | vs. Northwestern Wildcats | Lincoln, NE |
Nov. 1 | vs. USC Trojans | Lincoln, NE |
Nov. 8 | at UCLA Bruins | Pasadena, CA |
Nov. 15 | BYE | |
Nov. 22 | at Penn State Nittany Lions | University Park, PA |
Nov. 28 | vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | Lincoln, NE |
After looking at Nebraska's 2025 regular-season schedule, I see only one certain loss, at Penn State on Nov. 22. With Cincinnati being just mediocre under Scott Satterfield and Sherrone Moore not being available for the Michigan game, there is a chance Nebraska wins its first six to eight games. Playing at Minnesota kind of scares me, but this is a very navigable early schedule.
But once the calendar flips to November, that is when Rhule will really have to earn his keep at UNL.
Is a proverbial Matt Rhule pop year going to happen at Nebraska or not?
I am inclined to think it will. Outside of the brutal road matchup in State College, Nebraska has a good chance to win the rest of its games. Does that mean the Huskers will be going 11-1 (8-1) this season? Maybe, but I'm not counting on it. Their season will be made in November. They draw USC at home, but get to face UCLA on the road. Penn State is away, but Cornucopia vs. Iowa is at home.
If Nebraska starts on an eight-game winning streak, I like their chances of splitting their final four games to finish something like 10-2 (7-2). If they fall to Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State or anyone else early in conference play, we are looking at a team going closer to 8-4 (5-4). This team's ceiling is getting to 11-1 and making the College Football Playoff. The floor is closer to 7-5.
Nebraska got decent marks in Bill Connelly's latest SP+ rankings for ESPN. The Huskers come in at No. 45 overall, which has them very much middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Eight teams are better than them, including Michigan, USC, Penn State and Iowa on the schedule. If those are their four losses, then Nebraska achieved all it could this season, and nothing more. But is 8-4 good enough?
I think Nebraska needs to get to 9-3 and pull off one of those "upsets" for the 2025 campaign to be viewed as a success for Rhule. Winning 10 or more games at Temple and Baylor is not the same as winning nine at Nebraska, especially given where the program has been for the better part of a decade now. Against my better judgment, the Matt Rhule pop year is going to occur.
The realistic expectations have been set for Rhule, but it will be up to him and his program to deliver.