One of the most anticipated matchups of the NBA season is on the schedule Tuesday, as the Dallas Mavericks travel to Los Angeles to take on the Lakers. This will be the first game between these teams since the blockbuster trade that shook the basketball world earlier this month, which means it's also the first time that Luka Doncic will face his old team.
It would have been nice to have Anthony Davis return to Crypto.com Arena in uniform as well, but he unfortunately has been out with an adductor strain that he suffered in the third quarter of his first game as a Maverick. Davis went off in the first half in that one, briefly giving despondent Mavs fans a ray of hope with a 24/13/5 line before halftime. His injury has only plunged them deeper into depression though, and it's only gotten worse since Doncic went off for 32 points in a road win over the Nuggets on Saturday.
The Mavs have been hanging tough even without Davis, holding on to beat the Rockets in AD's first game and then winning three of five since. The Lakers have been one of the best teams in the league for the past five weeks though, winning 14-of-18 in that timeframe. Saturday's win in Denver was especially encouraging, as Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets have knocked L.A. out of the playoffs each of the past two years.
Tuesday's game is sure to make people overreact, so let's make some predictions before the teams actually face off. Here's our best bet for what might go down.
Lakers-Mavericks bold prediction No. 1: Luka makes a statement
This game is all about Luka Doncic. How will he respond against his old team? He clearly was shocked and hurt to have been traded so suddenly, but that can manifest itself in many ways on the court.
Doncic started slow with the Lakers as he worked his way back from a calf injury that had kept him out since Christmas. That resulted in some un-Luka-like stat lines in his first few games, but Saturday's explosion showed that he's close to being back to full strength.
Doncic is one of the most competitive guys in the league, and he'll relish the chance to shove it back in Mavs general manager Nico Harrison's ... face. Lakers head coach JJ Redick and LeBron James understand the moment, and they'll certainly want to put their new star in the best situation to succeed. Look for Doncic to get the ball early and often to make his point.
Stephen A. Smith and Tim Legler had a great debate about this on First Take. Legler thinks Doncic will wait until his first game back in Dallas to go fully nuclear, and on that I tend to agree. I'd put his over/under at 50 points for that one. But I also side with Stephen A. that he's going to want to hurt people's feelings tonight.
"I think [Luka's] gonna come out there tonight and look to hurt people's feelings." 😳
— First Take (@FirstTake) February 25, 2025
—@stephenasmith to @LegsESPN on Luka Doncic's first game against the Mavericks 👀 pic.twitter.com/IRsYiBT0cl
All things considered, I'd be very surprised if Doncic went for less than 30. This is a guy with a history of rising to meet the big moment, and he'll do it tonight.
Lakers-Mavericks bold prediction No. 2: Kyrie keeps Dallas in it
Just because Doncic has a big game doesn't automatically mean that the Lakers will run away with this one. The Mavs got beaten badly by the Warriors on Sunday, but I'd argue that's mostly a product of looking ahead to this game so much.
The Mavs are extremely banged up on their front line. We know already that Davis is out. So is Dereck Lively, who suffered a stress fracture in his ankle in January. Daniel Gafford is also out with a sprained MCL. It's astoundingly bad luck for a team that, when healthy, has the deepest center position in the league. Even new arrival Caleb Martin is out tonight with a right hip strain.
Why should we expect the Mavs to stay in this one? Three reasons. The first is Kyrie Irving, who has stepped up in Doncic's absence to score 30 or more in four of seven games. He'll need to put the team on his back tonight, and I think he will after having an off-night in Golden State.
The second is Max Christie, who has continued his ascension into a valuable rotation piece since coming over almost as an afterthought in the Doncic-Davis trade. Christie doesn't have the pedigree to qualify for "revenge game" status yet, but he'll be motivated to show the Lakers that they shouldn't have let him go.
The third reason Dallas will keep this close is that the Lakers don't have anybody to take advantage of their hole at center. Rob Pelinka's trade for Mark Williams fell through (for possibly nefarious reasons?), which leaves Jaxson Hayes, Christian Koloko and Trey Jemison III to work down low. Even against a depleted Mavericks frontcourt, it's not like these guys are going to take over.
Lakers-Mavericks bold prediction No. 3: The Lakers pull away late to win their third in a row
The Lakers are in real contention to climb as high as the 2-seed in the West, which means that above all of the Doncic-related storylines, what matters most is that they win this game. Even though I expect the Mavs to hang around, the smart money says that the Lakers will do just that.
The Hornets pulled off a shocking upset in L.A. on Wednesday. That's the last home game the Lakers played, and they'll be anxious to put on a good showing in front of their home fans tonight. The last time they lost two consecutive home games was just after Thanksgiving.
FanDuel has the Lakers favored by nine tonight, and that seems like a pretty fair number given their homecourt advantage and recent run of quality play. I expect Doncic to come out hot early, LeBron and Austin Reaves to keep the Mavs at bay through the third quarter, and then Doncic to close with a big fourth quarter to put the game away.
Final score: Lakers 122, Mavericks 109