1.80%. Those were the odds the Dallas Mavericks had of landing the No. 1 overall pick heading into Monday's NBA Draft Lottery. A team that finished the regular season just four games under .500, not only made the play-in tournament but also won a game in it, now holds the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
The news came as a shock to many, as teams that finished with fewer than 20 wins fell out of the top three. The Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, and Utah Jazz all essentially tanked their way to the bottom of the standings but didn’t even get a shot at a top-four selection. These three teams, each holding a 14% chance of landing the number one pick, ended up losing out to arguably the most disliked general manager in modern sports — Nico Harrison.
The Mavericks’ win doesn’t just feel like a typical NBA storyline rigged for entertainment value, but rather highlights a persistent problem: the draft lottery system needs to change, as X user Nate Duncan points out.
I'm pretty close to the point of considering the NBA's new lottery odds a failure. It's just resulted in even more teams tanking, while also doing a worse job of accomplishing the primary goal of helping the worst teams get better.
— Nate Duncan (@NateDuncanNBA) May 12, 2025
Mavericks winning NBA Draft Lottery proves changes are necessary
Just last year, during the 2024 Draft Lottery, the Detroit Pistons finished with the league’s worst record (14-68), yet the Atlanta Hawks — with just a 3% chance — secured the top pick despite finishing the regular season 36-46 and holding the 10th seed in the East.
Even the San Antonio Spurs, who ended the season 14 games under .500 despite acquiring De’Aaron Fox mid-season, jumped from outside the top 10 to the second overall pick. Just when it seemed the Spurs couldn’t get stronger around Victor Wembanyama, they managed to land yet another potential star.
Why does it seem like the NBA isn’t “rewarding” poorly performing teams, but instead favoring mediocre ones? The Mavericks’ roster is leagues ahead of the Jazz’s — one team fought for a playoff spot, while the other was focused on long-term rebuilding. It’s a fair question that fans of bottom-tier teams are now asking.
Don’t get it wrong — outside of Cooper Flagg, this draft class still holds plenty of potential. His Duke teammates are projected to go in the top 10, and the scoring duo from Rutgers, Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, are promising young talents hungry to make their mark.
Winning the lottery feels like a double-edged sword for the Mavericks. On one side, they are essentially replacing Luka Dončić with Cooper Flagg, giving the fans hope instead of a complete rebuild. On the other, Nico Harrison — the man who traded away Dončić for roughly two dozen games of Anthony Davis — got exactly what he wanted. A figure disliked by the NBA community, Harrison’s perceived lack of loyalty left a bitter taste.
Whether teams will try to acquire the number one pick remains to be seen. The real question isn’t which team will make an offer, but whether Nico Harrison will even consider it. Perhaps, just this once, the odds really are in his favor.