Max Scherzer contract grade, details: Blue Jays round out boom-or-bust rotation

This offseason certainly didn't start the way the Toronto Blue Jays had hoped. With a meeting with Juan Soto secured and big-time pitching options like Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell up for grabs, GM Ross Atkins was certainly dreaming of a big winter — one big enough to vault the team from last place in the AL East back to the postseason, and maybe convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to forgo free agency along the way.

Of course, Toronto never seemed seriously in the Soto sweepstakes, and despite their best efforts, they whiffed on all three pitchers at the top of the market. Suddenly, Atkins was staring down another lost season, one that might cost the Blue Jays their foundational stars — and Atkins himself his job.

Slowly but surely, though, the team has begun to check off items on its offseason to-do list. He may not be in Soto's universe, but Anthony Santander is the lefty-swinging corner bat this lineup was crying out for. Need an infield upgrade? Here's Andres Gimenez. And while it's a far cry from Fried or Burnes, Toronto finally addressed its need for rotation depth on Thursday evening, agreeing to a one-year deal with Max Scherzer worth $15.5 million.

Again, this isn't what fans envisioned when last season ended. And it remains to be seen whether it's enough to keep pace with the likes of the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles in what's shaping up to be a rugged division. But the fact remains that the Jays needed to add a pitcher at some point this offseason, and if you put aside past expectations, this was probably the best Atkins could do at this point.

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Max Scherzer signing was the best option left for a desperate Ross Atkins

Entering his age-40 season, Scherzer was never going to get more than a year, and his $15.5 million salary is right in line with Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb, Charlie Morton and other veteran arms who've signed this winter. But does that mean that the future Hall of Famer was the right fit for this Toronto team?

Well, yes and no. Atkins certainly would've preferred to slot, say, Burnes into this spot, but Toronto's struggles finding any big name to take its money this winter has been well-documented. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios and Chris Bassitt are locked into spots one through three, and Bowden Francis' 2024 breakout was great, but there wasn't nearly enough behind those names for the Jays to feel good about where their rotation was at. They needed at least one more arm, and once the multi-year names were off the board, you could easily argue that Scherzer was the best option remaining for Atkins to take.

Of course, there are red flags here; if there weren't, Scherzer wouldn't have accepted a one-year deal at the end of January. The righty is in his 40s now, and he pitched just 43.1 innings in 2024 as he battled multiple injuries. Durability is a real concern, especially with how little depth Toronto has behind its first five or six names right now.

But whenever Scherzer has been healthy enough to take the mound, he's been effective — even last year, when he pitched to a 101 ERA+ and struck out nearly a batter per inning. And he was genuinely excellent for the New York Mets as recently as two seasons ago. Even if Scherzer isn't anywhere near what he was at his Cy Young peak, he still has enough in the tank to miss some bats and at least produce at an above-average rate. That's not nothing for a team with a giant question mark left in its rotation, and who knows, maybe Scherzer captures lightning in a bottle one more time and gives the Jays a surprisingly formidable starting five.

Carlos Estevez contract grade: B-