Max Verstappen is clearly the strongest driver on the grid right now. Let's get that out of the way.
There is no doubt that if you go on raw pace and ability, every team would and should take Verstappen with their first choice every time.
Verstappen supposedly leaving the team that he has been with since signing on in 2014 has been a persistent rumor for years. As the Red Bull's performance has dipped and the team fell into a bit of a messy situation with the Christian Horner harassment allegations, it seemed closer to reality last season.
But now the talks to exit are as real as ever, with Verstappen basically "no comment"-ing any questions about the possibility, which kind of is a comment in its own way.
It's clear why Verstappen would want to come to Mercedes, but should Mercedes really make this move?
Max Verstappen's reasons for an exit make sense
There's two sides to this situation, and the champion's is clear as day. Red Bull has lost pace the last couple seasons and truly might be an even worse car than we think, but Verstappen is just such a talent that he can make miracles happen with it.
With new regulations next season, the order is due to get shaken up. Red Bull could smash it like they did in 2022, or they could be seconds off the pace.
But Red Bull's infrastructure isn't as strong as it was coming into the current set of regulations. They won't be coming in with a title in the bag. They won't have their car-building wizard in Adrian Newey, who jumped ship to Aston Martin. They will have a second seat that is in as brutal of a position as it ever has been.
Verstappen has already climbed the mountain with Red Bull. He's seen days where the engine was blowing up every other race and he's seen the car when no one else on the grid could touch it.
So at this point, why hang around at a team where Christian Horner doesn't command respect (his dad certainly doesn't feel it) and leader Dr. Helmut Marko is constantly mouthing off, throwing blame?
He's got every reason to go. But Mercedes has every reason to walk away from the discussions.
Mercedes should absolutely not blow things up for Max
It might sound crazy, but Toto Wolff does not need Verstappen at this point in the team's evolution.
Do you improve your overall chances of winning races if you add him? Of course. But there are so many problems that come with making this move.
First, you have to can one of your drivers, both who came up with and were molded by Mercedes and have reached F1 with their backing. F1 is a cold, calculating sport, but George Russell and Kimi Antonelli are living proof of signing talent, nurturing it and letting it shine. To end that story for either one of them would be brutal.
Once you've made the decision to cut loose one of them, you have major issues in both lineup possibilities.
Axing George Russell? Seems absolutely insane — he is having a career season, has come into his own in 2025 with confidence and swagger, he outperformed Lewis Hamilton in two of their three seasons together, has produced wins despite never having a dominating car in his time with Mercedes.
Keeping Antonelli over Russell, despite his signs of promise, feels insane at this point. Russell has beat Antonelli in every single race, and almost every single session too: their quali and race head-to-head is in favor of Russell 24-2.
But you can't ignore the fireworks that Verstappen and Russell would have together as teammates. While I think there's an underlying respect for each other once cooler heads prevail, the two have run into each other a bunch despite rarely racing wheel-to-wheel.
Verstappen literally just crashed into Russell on purpose a few weeks ago. Russell has called out Verstappen for being "violent" on track. It would certainly be entertaining to watch for fans, but Wolff might be driven to madness.
Dropping Antonelli after a single season also seems unbelievable — after jettisoning him to F1 as quick as they could, to cut Kimi loose would amount to basically a waste of their efforts before Mercedes can reap the rewards that certainly seem to be coming soon.
Mercedes' best option to be fair to Antonelli would be to set him up with a ride elsewhere, but there likely isn't one in 2026. Williams would be the clear option, but it has an experienced lineup that I doubt James Vowles wants to mess with. Alpine could possibly be an option with them taking on Mercedes powertrains in 2026 and a second seat in doubt ... but do you really want to banish his talent to go there?
Message to Toto: Keep things as they are
You cannot blame Mercedes for making a play for Verstappen, but the best opening for this should've been last season when there was a seat open. Now you have a lineup that gels well together and includes a championship caliber driver in Russell and a shining light of promise in Antonelli.
Not only do you mess up your homegrown success story by booting one of them, but you also put yourself in position to have to deal with the sport's most fiery personality too.
Mercedes would be remiss to not sign Russell ASAP and make him the leader of the team for years to come, while letting Antonelli keep learning and growing. It's already wild that Russell hasn't already been signed, especially not at his home grand prix this weekend.
Ignore the entertainment factor of the silly season that would come with Verstappen to Mercedes. Ignore the incredible rivalry that it would bring. Try and ignore the talent level that Verstappen has for this situation.
The German team's best move into the future is to keep the ship in the direction it's already heading.