The New York Mets are set to begin a crucial four-game series at Dodger Stadium and will have Paul Blackburn making his season debut on the mound for them. On one hand, it's exciting to see Blackburn healthy and contributing to the Mets. On the other hand, though, it's hard to overlook just how difficult a position the Mets have put him in.
One of the most controversial decisions that the Mets made over the offseason was choosing to keep Blackburn around instead of non-tendering him. Yes, you can never have enough starting pitching depth, but Blackburn has never made more than 21 starts in a season, has a career 4.85 ERA, and didn't look great in his five starts with the team last year while also not having any options.
Entering the year, Blackburn was expected to be in the back end of the team's rotation or work out of the bullpen in long relief. Ultimately, his injury opened the door for guys like Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill to crack the rotation, and they've both exceeded expectations.
Now, while Blackburn is starting today, his future with the Mets is extremely murky. It truly does feel like the Mets have put Blackburn in a really tough spot.
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Paul Blackburn has the toughest first task coming off the IL
Blackburn's first chance to make an impression comes at Dodger Stadium against the loaded Los Angeles Dodgers. Now, Mookie Betts isn't in the lineup on Monday, but the Dodgers lead the majors in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, and their best player, Shohei Ohtani, is 4-for-9 against him with a double and a home run.
As if facing the Dodgers isn't challenging enough, they're a whole other beast when playing on their home turf. The Dodgers have a whopping 150 WRC+ at Dodger Stadium, performing 50 percent above average at home. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are tied for second in the majors with a 127 WRC+.
So, yeah, Blackburn, who hasn't pitched in a major league game since August of 2024, is going to have to pitch at a packed Dodger Stadium against the defending champions. It won't help that they'll be incredibly motivated to beat this Mets team that just won a series against Los Angeles last week, either.
Blackburn can pitch well. We've seen the Mets get the most out of countless starters over the past couple of years. Still, he is being thrown into a very difficult position.
Paul Blackburn doesn't have much time to prove himself
Now, this wouldn't be a big deal if Blackburn had ample time to get comfortable, but time is the one thing he doesn't have. The Mets' rotation, even without him and several others, leads the National League with a 2.91 ERA. They've been lights out, and are the main reason the team is tied for the best record in the National League as a whole.
Blackburn is joining the rotation to be a sixth starter during a prolonged stretch where the Mets don't have an off-day, but the Mets won't need to use six starters all year long. This, combined with upcoming returns of other starters, means that the Mets will have more starting pitchers than spots, which is a great "problem" for the organization to have, but.
Frankie Montas is in the middle of a rehab assignment and will likely return sometime in June. Sean Manaea isn't too far behind. The Mets also happen to have exciting prospects like Blade Tidwell, Nolan McLean, and Brandon Sproat in Triple-A, just one call away from contributing at the MLB level.
Ultimately, with Montas especially on the mend, Blackburn likely only has two or three starts at most to prove he belongs in this Mets rotation long-term. Two of those starts will come against the Dodgers and at the hitters' haven that is Coors Field. Does it get much tougher than that?
Paul Blackburn's Mets tenure could be shortlived
Fair or not, it feels as if Blackburn's Mets career is on the line, here. If he pitches well, the Mets will find room for him, whether it's in the rotation or in the bullpen. If not, it's entirely possible that he gets DFA'd.
This isn't the outcome anyone wants. Blackburn has had some good moments in the past, and was even an All-Star with the Athletics back in 2022. He's also owed $4.05 million, and the Mets would rather not eat that money. Still, the Mets are a team trying to win now, and if Blackburn doesn't instantly look like a pitcher who can contribute, he might not stick around for long.
Blackburn being out of options complicates the matter, as the Mets can't simply send him down to Triple-A and keep him as depth. They have to find room for him on their active roster or cut bait. They thought they'd have room when they traded for him and chose to keep him around, but things have changed (in a good way!) Finding room for him now is easy, and the same can be said if he pitches well, but if he struggles once Montas and others return, his roster spot is far from secure.
To be clear, this isn't the Mets' fault at all. This is how the schedule unfolded, and this is when Blackburn is healthy. Still, it's hard to ignore the pressure Blackburn is dealing with. He has the shortest of windows to prove he belongs, and if he doesn't, he could be gone. Thus is the business of baseball in a nutshell.