After a thrilling week at The Genesis, we're now going south of the border from the California swing on the PGA Tour for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. We've seen this tournament and Vidanta Vallarta host this event for the previous three years and there's one thing that stands out about the guys who have had success at this venue: It's all about power and ball-striking.
When you look at the likes of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau and Jake Knapp last year, they are all extremely long off of the tee with the ability to also back it up on approach. The fairways are wide at Vidanta Vallarta, giving guys the ability to wail on from the tee box. What's interesting, though, is that this field is certainly quite weak comparatively to much of the California swing, putting a lot of people in good position to make a move and come up with a big finish this week.
We struck out at Torrey Pines last week as Rory couldn't put and the others might've just been some bad reads — though Daniel Berger as our sleeper outright did make a little bit of noise, even if he wasn't close to winning. Damn myself for not letting my love for Ludvig Åberg at the Farmers carry over because I got spooked by his illness.
It's Mexico Open time now, though, and I'm feeling great about the spot we're in. So let's dive into our Mexico Open expert picks with predictions for a winner, Top 10, sleepers and much more this week at Vidanta Vallarta.
Golf betting record in 2025: 5-22-0, -9.175 Units (-3 Units at Genesis) | One and Done Total for 2025: $3,059,552 (Hideki Matsuyama at Genesis, $384,250)
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Mexico Open golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the Mexico Open: Kurt Kitayama (+2200)
Kurt Kitayama has one start at this venue, which came in 2022 when he tied for runner-up behind Rahm. Now he comes in with the right form to potentially dominate. It's one checked box after another with Kitayama. Over the last 24 rounds, he leads the field SG: Tee-to-Green, is third in SG: Par 5 scoring, is sixth in driving distance, and is sixth-best on approaches from 200-225 yards. His short game is always the question but he's played well on Paspalum greens before, so I'm all in on him getting into the winner's circle this week. Frankly, I feel crazy that I was the only member of the SI Golf betting panel to have an outright on Kitayama.
Top 10 pick for the Mexico Open: Kevin Yu (+320)
It simply feels like Kevin Yu has everything going in the right direction for him to have a big week at Mexico Open. The 26-year-old finished T16 in Phoenix and T17 last week while gaining more than 5.2 strokes tee-to-green in both events, even while losing strokes around the green in Phoenix. He's Top 5 in the field on long approaches and can score well, ranking 18th over the last 24 rounds in Birdie or Better Percentage. With everything he has going and Paspalum greens to slow things down for him there, I think he's near the top of the leaderboard.
One and Done pick for the Mexico Open: Kurt Kitayama
This was a no-brainer. I love Kurt Kitayama's game but few places fit him better than it seems that Vidanta Vallarta does. It's not a big-money tournament so I feel less worried about any inherent risk when it comes to using him at an event like this given that there is some volatility that accompanies the upside — which, to me, is him hoisting the trophy this week.
Sleepers to watch at the Mexico Open
Top 20 sleeper pick for the Mexico Open (0.9 Units): Carson Young (+250)
Recent results of a T57, Missed Cut, T29 and Missed Cut might not be anything to write home about, but there are obvious signs that Carson Young is set for a great week at a place where he's played extremely well. In two starts at Vidanta Vallarta, Young has registered T15 and T8 finishes. Furthermore, he's one of the best in the field in terms of putting performance improvement on Paspalum and gained a career-high 5.95 strokes on the green at Phoenix. Meanwhile, a month ago, he gained more than 5.5 strokes ball-striking at The American Express. With the history and the signs of life from his game — not to mention a T2 in Mexico in the fall at El Cardonal — I think Young puts forth a great effort this week.
Sleeper to win the Mexico Open (0.1 Units): Hayden Springer (+11000, FanDuel)
We're taking a deep flier on Hayden Springer, but for good reason. You want a player who has been playing well on long courses, well he finished solo sixth at Farmers. Springer also had a T38 here last year but bled short game strokes in the first two rounds before finding some footing. More importantly, he gained more than 6.0 strokes ball-striking and finished T3 in Puerto Rico the following week. More pressingly, he's also sixth in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds in this field while also being sixth in Par 5 scoring over that span and has been a stud at easy courses. It's just a sprinkle but I like Springer's chances to show out extremely well this week.