Michigan has no path to the College Football Playoff no matter what the math says

Welp, it’s safe to say there will not be a back-to-back college football national champion. Because no matter what the math says, Michigan is all but out of the college football playoff. And even by some stroke of good faith if the Wolverines land in the college football playoff game, they’d need more luck than physically possible to win it all again. 

The Wolverines were whipped by Illinois on Saturday 21-7 in what is probably their last game this season as a ranked team in the 2024 season. To say this season has been disappointing for the Wolverines isn’t harsh enough to describe how bad it’s been. 

It all started when Texas made a mockery of Michigan at The Big House and the Wolverines haven’t really recovered since. The math says Michigan has a chance, but if there’s any chance a three-loss team sneaks into the expanded playoff, there isn’t a chance Michigan is one of those teams. 

Michigan reaches rock bottom in 2024 season with loss to Illinois

On paper, the loss to Illinois really isn’t that bad. The Illini have had a strong season, entered the game as the No. 22 ranked team in the country and were home against Michigan. Road games are always tough, so we’ll give Michigan the benefit of the doubt there. 

But there’s a bigger reason why Michigan won’t land in the CFB playoff. 

And it’s their offense. For some reason, they haven’t been able to figure it out. Their run game carried them to an undefeated season last year and national title in what would be Jim Harbaugh’s final game at his alma mater. This season, their run game has dropped off and they haven’t been able to find a quarterback they trust. 

The Wolverines started Jack Tuttle on Saturday and it was the third quarterback to start for them this season. Davis Warren has been terrible with six interceptions and two touchdowns. He was benched for Alex Orji, who statistically has been the best one so far. And Tuttle failed to reach 100 passing yards. 

Offensively, if it wasn’t for Kalel Mullings, the Wolverines could easily be a two-win team right now. Donavan Edwards hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as he did as Blake Corum’s backup the last two seasons.

Should we have seen this coming when Sherrone Moore was promoted to head coach. Either the offense took a hit because he couldn’t focus on it more, or this was always a problem masked by efficiency a year ago. 

Sure, the Wolverines lost a lot from last year and that’s important to remember. But this is Michigan, it would be one thing if they were 4-3, but looked good. They aren’t. They’re 4-3 and haven’t looked good once this season. They haven’t looked like a team that’s going to play you tough. 

They look like a team that doesn’t deserve to be in the College Football Playoff.