Is Mike Shildt setting Padres up for failure with Game 4 pitching decision?

The San Diego Padres won a thrilling Game 3 of the NLDS to take a 2-1 series lead against the Los Angeles Dodgers. They're one win away from an NLCS berth, which for a team that traded Juan Soto away this past offseason, feels crazy to say.

The Padres were the most dominant team in the majors in the second half, and have stayed red-hot by winning four of their first five postseason games. The vibes in San Diego are pretty close to immaculate. The only mood-killer so far has been the untimely and unfortunate Joe Musgrove injury.

That injury not only knocked out the Padres' right-hander for the rest of the postseason, but he's almost certainly going to miss all of next season with Tommy John Surgery being needed.

Musgrove's injury hadn't hurt the Padres in the NLDS, but it's clear from their Game 4 pitching decision that they miss their right-hander. San Diego is slated to start Dylan Cease on Wednesday, and that decision might set the team up for failure.

Mike Shildt unnecessarily setting Padres up for failure with Game 4 pitching decision

Cease is one of the best pitchers in the National League. There's a reason that the Padres traded for him in the first place and had him start the opener in this series. Still, it's hard to fathom how starting him in Game 4 makes much sense.

First and foremost, Cease is going to be on three days' rest, which is something he has never done over the course of his six-year MLB career. Sure, he's as durable as they come so injury isn't really a concern, but how productive will he be?

Cease is awesome, but in Game 1 of this series, he struggled mightily, allowing five runs in just 3.1 innings of work including a monstrous three-run home run off the bat of Shohei Ohtani. That was when Cease had nearly two weeks of rest. How will the right-hander respond against the same team that just beat him up?

The Padres have veteran left-hander Martin Perez on their roster who can eat up some innings as a starting pitcher, and the deepest bullpen in baseball behind him. Even if Perez gets roughed up, the game shouldn't be over with the Padres' dynamic offense against a Dodgers' pitching staff in shambles.

If the team were to lose Game 4 of the series, which is the worst-case scenario that'd come from starting Perez, it's not as if they'd be eliminated. They'd have Cease on an extra day of rest ready to go in Game 5, and might be able to sneak a couple of innings out of Yu Darvish too. They could even start Darvish who dominated the Dodgers in Game 2 and have Cease available in relief.

It'd be ideal for the Padres to finish the Dodgers off in Game 4 for so many reasons, but this is not an elimination game for them. They do not have to use Cease, a pitcher who has never pitched on three days' rest before, in that circumstance against a team that just hit him hard.

The downgrade from Musgrove to a guy like Perez is a monstrous one and should not be overlooked, but Shildt is managing this game as if the Padres are the team on the ropes when, in fact, the Dodgers are the team on the brink of elimination. This makes starting Cease when he most likely won't be at his best when that's entirely avoidable for when the Padres need him a curious decision at best.

Cease is an awesome pitcher and this could easily work in Shildt's favor, but it could also just as easily, if not more so, backfire.