The Milwaukee Bucks have gone 4-1 in their last five games. While that may seem like a reason to celebrate, the team hasn’t actually solved any of their underlying concerns. Their offensive efficiency has dropped to 15th in the league, which is the opposite of the trend they hoped to see after trading Khris Middleton. There's still plenty of tinkering going on, and changes don't take over night. But pretty soon, it may be time to take a jackhammer to the roster composition.
Bucks news: Andre Jackson Jr.’s minutes have evaporated
In the Bucks' past three games, Jackson has played a total of five minutes against the Washington Wizards, Miami Heat, and Houston Rockets. In Tuesday's loss to the Rockets, he was held out of the lineup completely. As the Bucks top perimeter defender, Doc Rivers’ indifference to Jackson is baffling. The Bucks have badly needed a backcourt stopper alongside Damian Lillard for a while now.
Jackson has provided that, but at the expense of the offensive side of the floor where he's been a relative non-entity. He regularly takes on the toughest assignments and has been the best point-of-attack defender on the Bucks. Jackson started 43 games for Milwaukee this season but averaged 3.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.4 assists in 17 minutes per game. Doc Rivers explained Jackson’s diminishing role on Tuesday night as being a byproduct of their acquisitions of Kyle Kuzma, Jericho Sims, and Kevin Porter Jr.
“Mid-season trade," Rivers said. "We brought in other guys who I think fill his role. His numbers were not great, especially with Giannis on the floor, those two guys together."
At the deadline, the Bucks traded away two out of their last three first-round picks, acquired a distressed asset in KPJ whom they originally drafted back in 2019, and phased out the only homegrown first-round pick since Antetokounmpo. However, each of their additions are one-dimensional in their own respect. KPJ is a poor shooter and a shoddy defender. Kuzma is a below-average catch-and-shoot wing, and Sims’ skillset is limited to rim runs and verticality on defense. Poor drafting has handicapped the Bucks for years and it ultimately could be their downfall.
Bucks news: Milwaukee's late-game offensive execution is terrible
Before Tuesday night, the Bucks were winners of four straight games since Feb. 12. However, the winning streak only masked their existing issues. A 100-97 loss to the Houston Rockets was the culmination of two factors that played to Milwaukee’s disadvantage, the most glaring of which was their dismal fourth-quarter offense.
In the final frame, the Bucks are the league's least efficient offense per 100 possessions by a fairly significant margin. Milwaukee’s 103.9 points per 100 possessions is more than two points per 100 possessions worse than the 29th-ranked Brooklyn Nets. On average, they’re outscored to the tune of a negative 3.1 net rating in the fourth.
Part of the reason they get gummed up is their sticky ball movement. Static modern NBA offenses that don’t move the ball allow defenders to rest on the weak side where there’s no activity. Those energy reserves matter in the fourth quarter. They’re also simpler to scheme against, and teams that defend well and have the personnel to catch up to the Bucks have had little trouble.
In clutch time, the picture gets even worse. The Bucks are also 29th in offensive rating, behind only the Wizards! An offense helmed by Lillard and Antetokounmpo being one of the worst clutch time lineups is basketball malpractice.
A year ago, they were seventh in the NBA in the last five minutes of contests where the score was within five points, earning a 119.8 offensive rating in 147 minutes. In 111 minutes this season, that clutch-time offensive rating has collapsed by 23 points to 96.7.
The only thing propping their rotting late-game offense up is their spry defense, which ranks second in the entire NBA in clutch time offensive rating. However, their personnel complicates their ability to play great both defensively and offensively; there’s always a tradeoff depending on which closing lineups they trot out. What you’re seeing is probably more on GM Jon Horst than Rivers: Milwaukee is lacking in 3-and-D options, forcing them to often have to choose between wing defenders and wing scorers. Conversely, contenders like Boston, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland boast two-way players with three-dimensional skill sets throughout their lineup.
Rivers doesn’t get off scot-free, though. Milwaukee's offense is predicated on isolations and one-on-one scoring ability. Their assist percentage rate is 25th in the entire NBA, meaning only six teams score more on unassisted field goals than the Bucks.
They're often not getting high-quality shots. When they do, the Bucks shooters keep them afloat. When Milwaukee shoots below the league average (36 percent) as a team from downtown though, they’re 4-15. They are 29th in shots attempted within eight feet, second in midrange attempts, and 28th in points in the paint per 100 possessions. Adding Kuzma and Porter Jr. into the lineup at the trade deadline just inserted two other ball-stopping scorers into their lineup.
Against Houston, their final shots were all low-quality, hero-mode shots, aside from Antetokounmpo’s flush in the waning seconds to cut the Rockets lead down. Lillard has burnished his reputation as a shooting titan who shines late, but it’s not the foundation of a sustainable 12-minute offense against upper-echelon competition for Kuzma, Jackson, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, AJ Green, Sims, Gary Trent, and company.
If the Bucks are going to make a run in the final third of the season, they’ll need to diversify. It’s a conundrum they likely won’t be able to fully solve in the next 25 games, but they can’t prescribe a solution in the offseason if they refuse to acknowledge that there’s an issue.