Conjuring up scenarios where the Bucks win the NBA title is a difficult challenge. As the regular season comes to a close, Milwaukee’s odds of winning an NBA title are slimmer than the plot of a Tubi movie.
Based on what we've seen this season, they’d have to experience two months of Rube Goldberg device-caliber breaks going in their favor to become the first non-top-three seed to win a title in 30 years. The Bucks will embark on the postseason without a single win against a top-three team in their conference.
But here's how they could still pull it off.
Giannis Antetokounmpo in hero mode
Giannis Antetokounmpo is still a game-changer. He is having one of the most efficient 30-point-per-game seasons in NBA history and cementing his iconoclastic legacy as the Greatest NBA Player Alive Without a Jump Shot in an era where everyone seemingly has range beyond 24 feet. Over the last several games, he’s also become a perpetual triple-double machine. He’s doing it all out there. Only a handful of teams have a Marvel Cinematic Universe-level superstar who can put an entire team on his back through a seven-game series.
He did it throughout the 2021 postseason, against Brooklyn and especially in the Finals clincher against Phoenix, when he locked in and made free throws at a startlingly prolific rate. If Damian Lillard returns to the lineup after dealing with deep vein thrombosis in his vein, he’ll arrive with fresh 34-year-old legs. It also opens up the lane for Antetokounmpo to do work and consequently make the Bucks a more lethal offensive team.
The NBA Cup
The NBA Cup was the Bucks at their best. Milwaukee was the only team to deal Oklahoma City a significant body blow during Oklahoma City’s historic regular season,
That 97-81 win in December's NBA Cup Final did not get recorded as a win or loss on their record. However, it did not occur outside the construct of space and time. We all saw it happen under NBA rules. They held the Thunder to 5-of-32 shooting and looked extremely impressive defensively. The Bucks celebrated that Cup win as if it was a Western Conference Final, but afterward, injuries and the malaise that takes place in spurts during an 83-game season kicked in. Given that the Thunder are the favorite to reach the NBA by a mile, that one win still holds more weight than any other victory the Bucks have secured this season.
At the time, Isaiah Hartenstein was in the lineup for Oklahoma City while they were missing Chet Holmgren. The Bucks used their size discrepancy to their advantage. If the Thunder waltz into an NBA Finals, they still have the redwoods to upset the Thunder as long as their shooters can also catch fire.
Bucks let their shooting hands guide them
That's a big if because this is a streaky team offensively. One moment they’re catapulting 3s and sizzling from distance, and the next there’s a lid over the rim. They catch fire shooting and burn the house down or self-immolate, There is no in-between for these Bucks. Their 34-3 run against the Minnesota Timberwolves earlier this week was emblematic of their ability to go on a run.
Against the right foe, they need to catch the adrenaline wave and hit their stride to four wins. The Knicks are susceptible to a playoff letdown due to fatigue. The top-seeded Cavaliers and Celtics are the real problems. The Celtics live and die by the trey. The odds would be heavily stacked in favor of the defending champs, but we’ve seen them fall short before when they aren’t hitting shots.
It’s a shooter’s league and the Bucks have compiled plenty of them. Theoretically, Kyle Kuzma can shoot the rock. Kevin Porter J. can fill it up in a hurry, playoff time is Dame Time, and Gary Trent Jr. is a military-grade sharpshooter.
Since the All-Star break, they're third in effective field goal percentage, behind the Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers. They're second to Oklahoma City in true shooting percentage. The Bucks are 36-14 when they shoot better than the league average from 3-point range. As long as they can singe the nets for four games in each series, the Bucks will have a fighting chance.