The NBA regular season is winding down to a close in eight days, which means the Milwaukee Bucks playoff scenarios are shrinking. The last month has been bittersweet for the Bucks. Instead of challenging the New York Knicks or holding homecourt against the Pistons or Pacers, they’re now on a trajectory for a first-round exit. Veteran sixth man Bobby Portis was suspended for 25 games, Damian Lillard will be out for an unspecified period due to a blood clot in his shoulder and their trade deadline haul consisted of an underwhelming Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr.
Meanwhile, they dumped two of their past three first-round picks on trade partners and removed a third from their rotation. The present is bleak and the future is a plateau. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong except for Mr. Reliable, Giannis Antetokounmpo. In the short term, Milwaukee's focus should be on their playoff seeding. Escaping the sixth seed is of the utmost importance because a first-round matchup against New York without Lillard would be a massacre.
The Indiana Pacers, Bucks, and Detroit Pistons are so rightly wadded up that tiebreaker scenarios for seeding could still come into play. In the event of a tiebreaker scenario for seeding, the NBA relies on four data points.
- Head-to-head records
- Division winner
- Division record
- Conference record
Bucks tiebreaker scenarios vs. Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton is dishing out helpers like there’s no tomorrow. After beginning the year in one of the deepest funks imaginable, he’s rebounded into a lock for one of the All-NBA teams. Indiana has been one of the league’s hottest teams.
Since Jan. 1, they’ve won 30 of 43 games, and yet they have struggled to defeat the Bucks. Milwaukee owns the tiebreaker over Indiana after going 3-1 in head-to-head matchups this season. Because the Bucks have won the head-to-head scenario, conference and division records mean nothing.
After defeating the Pacers all four times they played this season, the Bucks own the tiebreaker and Indiana’s schedule down the stretch is a gauntlet. Their final five opponents are Denver, Washington, Orlando, and Cleveland twice. Unfortunately, Milwaukee trails Indiana by 3.5 games. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they only have five Pacers games left to make up that difference.
Bucks tiebreaker scenarios vs. Pistons
Their best bet is to focus on catching up to the Pistons. In theory, Milwaukee controls its destiny. However, Detroit has climbed out of the gutter in a hurry this season. They didn’t become a .500 team until Jan. 9 but haven’t looked back since.
Cade Cunningham has established himself as an All-NBA lead guard. Malik Beasley has been hitting bullseyes from behind the arc and Jalen Duren is a double-double machine. Isaiah Stewart is defending on an All-Defense level and Ausar Thompson is one of the most versatile perimeter defenders and lob threats in The Association.
The Bucks are 2-0 against the Detroit Pistons this season. However, those two matchups occurred before the New Year. Milwaukee was peaking as an In-Season Cup champ-in-the-making while the Pistons were still finding their sea legs.
On Nov. 13, the Bucks beat Detroit 127-120 at home on a night when Giannis Antetokounmpo set the tone by scoring 59 points. On Dec. 3 in NBA Cup group play, they gave the Pistons a swirly in a 128-107 road win. Detroit was 9-14 at that point in their season. Since then, they’ve surged to a 34-20 record.
The Bucks are currently half a game behind the Pistons for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee’s final six games will come against the Miami Heat, the New Orleans Pelicans twice, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and two matchups against the aforementioned Pistons. This will be a nail-biter, though. Milwaukee ends the season with consecutive matchups against Detroit to close out the regular season. They’ll likely be without Lillard, however. Meanwhile, Detroit ends its season against Memphis, Sacramento, New York, and Milwaukee.
In the event that Detroit wins their final two matchups against Milwaukee and their records are the same, neither will be the Eastern Conference Central division champion; therefore, division record would be the tiebreaker. Currently, Milwaukee owns the edge there too with a 7-7 record against the Eastern Conference Central Division. Detroit is underwater at 5-9 against the Central Division. As for conference record, the Bucks own the edge there too with a 28-31 record to Detroit's 26-21 record.
As of now, Milwaukee holds the cards against Detroit if they want to avoid a first-round matchup against New York. Hope is dwindling, but it’s not extinguished yet for the Bucks.