As of March 17, ESPN's BPI projections give the Atlanta Hawks a 99.9 percent chance to participate in the postseason. While 99.9 percent is not the same as 100 percent, an assumption could rightly be made that the Hawks are likely to take the floor in at least one postseason game, whether it be as part of the annual Play-In Tournament or beyond. To that end, it is natural to wonder what the team's rotation might look like under the brightest possible lights in April, or even May.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, standout forward Jalen Johnson is not walking through that door, as the 23-year-old suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in late January. In addition, veteran big man Larry Nance Jr. has been injured for several weeks and, while he could theoretically return, it may be difficult for Atlanta to rely on his on-court presence. As such, this exercise will look at the rotation through the lens of the currently available talent, keeping in mind that things can change in the blink of an eye.
The absolute locks - Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu
Only three players on Atlanta's roster are absolutely guaranteed to play big minutes in a playoff scenario, and they are self-explanatory. Young is the team's best player and offensive engine. Daniels is the team's principal perimeter defender and a valuable secondary offensive option. Okongwu is the team's starting center and an anchor on both ends.
The probables - Zaccharie Risacher, Caris LeVert, Georges Niang, Terance Mann
It would be a surprise if any of these four players totally fell out of the postseason rotation. Risacher has been a fully entrenched starter all season and, even if his minutes sometimes wax and wane in crunch time, his combination of future intrigue, shooting, length, and defensive aptitude is appealing. LeVert has been great since arriving in Atlanta, and he provides shot creation and wing defense. Niang is the team's best three-point shooter and, albeit in a bench role, he provides a skill set no one else on the team has. Mann has generally played fewer minutes than LeVert and Niang, but the veteran wing is signed for three more seasons, and Quin Snyder clearly believes in his two-way ability as a depth piece.
The possibles - Clint Capela, Vit Krejci, Mo Gueye, Dom Barlow
Capela would be in the "probables" category if not for a recent absence due to family reasons. The Hawks also seemingly went away from Capela just before the trade deadline, only to turn back to him after Nance Jr.'s injury. At the very least, Capela is the best available backup center, so he is likely to be in the rotation, at least in most games. Krejci provides one more perimeter option, should the Hawks need it, but he seems to be behind Mann and LeVert in the pecking order. Gueye has actually been starting at the power forward spot but, in the last 14 games, he is averaging only 16.3 minutes per game, and it seems as if the Hawks don't always trust him to execute. Barlow is on the list due to the uncertainty with Capela but, if Capela is likely in, Barlow is likely out.
The depth-only option - Garrison Mathews
Two-Way players are ineligible for postseason competition, leaving only Mathews on the list of players who would seemingly be on the outside. For several weeks, the Hawks have only turned to Mathews if myriad injuries emerge elsewhere. On the bright side, Mathews has one elite skill (shooting) and he can provide value when called upon to do so.
So, who loses minutes?
As noted above, the trio of Young, Daniels, and Okongwu are locked in. If anything, they might play more than usual under the playoff lights. That projection also likely applies to LeVert as a two-way wing with playoff experience, and Risacher seems likely to start every game he is available for.
Overall, Snyder is likely to trim the rotation to a maximum of nine players, and he could go to eight, either in full games or at least in halves. That would leave someone like Krejci on the outside looking in and, if things really get interesting, Atlanta could turn to 48 minutes of either Niang or Risacher at the power forward sports, leaving Gueye on the outside looking in.
Of course, some of this is matchup-related, leaving a great deal of uncertainty until the opponents are known. Still, the Hawks do have reasonable depth, which is a credit to the team given the absences of Johnson, Nance Jr., and 2023 first round pick Kobe Bufkin.