If you’re Kyle Tucker, why sign an extension with the Chicago Cubs months before free agency?
Tucker, 28, just watched Juan Soto sign a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets last offseason. The year before, Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers. There is endless money for superstar players in free agency, and Tucker has established himself as a premier player in baseball.
And no, this is not a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. situation. Guerrero came up with the Blue Jays, has played his entire career in Toronto, and signed a $500 million contract. Tucker, meanwhile, was traded to the Chicago Cubs in the offseason after seven seasons with the Houston Astros and has only played 21 games in Chicago.
Besides, Tucker and the Cubs are not talking about an extension, according to sources with knowledge of the situation. Perhaps the sides do this summer, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested. But all signs point toward Tucker reaching free agency.
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What could Kyle Tucker command in free agency?
If Tucker continues at his current pace, and stays healthy, a contract around or north of $500 million is certainly in play. A prominent league source called Tucker “the best all around player in baseball."
"Who plays Gold Glove defense, steals bases, gets on base at a high rate and hits for power and average [better than Tucker?]”
In Chicago, Tucker has emerged as an early MVP candidate in the National League hitting .301/.410/.478 with five home runs and 19 RBI. He has a 184 OPS+, which would rank as the best of his career, and his .999 OPS currently ranks 14th in baseball. He has transformed the Cubs’ offense, with the team ranking first in runs (126) this season.
Which is why the Cubs should do everything to keep Tucker in Chicago long-term, even if he does reach free agency. He’s a foundational player. He would ensure the Cubs’ offense is strong for years to come. He could help recruit players in free agency. The possibilities are endless, and team chairman Tom Ricketts didn’t rule out a major financial commitment, whether it was Tucker or another player, when speaking to the media on January 18.
“Cam Smith got off to such a great start,” Ricketts said, via The Athletic. “Maybe in a few years, people will say we should have traded somebody else. But that's what it is — there’s a balance to every trade. In this case, I think Jed was right in assessing that we needed an impact bat this season. Hopefully, he’ll enjoy his time here and he’ll be here a long time.”
For Tucker to stay in Chicago long-term, it’ll require Ricketts to do something he hasn’t done recently: spend big. While the Cubs do spend, they often do not operate like a big-market team. They have shown hardly any appetite when it comes to players like Ohtani, Soto or Bryce Harper — and while Tucker’s deal may not reach Ohtani or Soto’s contracts, he should receive well north of Harper’s $330 million commitment.
Perhaps the Cubs will come up with an offer to entice Tucker to stay in Chicago, whether it’s before or during free agency. But the most realistic scenario has always been the star slugger reaching free agency and when he does, he’ll have many big market teams bidding for his services. Just adding to the Cubs’ challenge of retaining Tucker long-term.
But those conversations between Tucker and the Cubs haven't even begun.