It’s one thing to lead a division in May. It’s another thing to hold that spot through September. Some of MLB’s current front-runners look like October locks. But others? I question if they're built to last.
We're heading into June, and that's generally a good time to take a step back and evaluate the baseball landscape. Who are the real contenders? Who are the pretenders? We're just shy of two months into the regular season, and we now have a proper sample size to answer those questions. Here, I'm breaking down every division leader from real to fraud, and digging into the moves they'll need to make to last.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
I mean…duh. The Los Angeles Dodgers are very clearly contenders, and they are a real threat to repeat as World Series champions.
Any time you have Shohei Ohtani on your roster, you should be World Series contenders. Key word: should. (Looking at you, Angels.) But when you have Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and a star-studded supporting cast, you are absolutely a threat to win the World Series year in and year out.
The Dodgers, however, are not without their flaws. Their pitching staff has been battered with injuries, and their depth is once again being tested. Given their resources, both in terms of prospects and money, it wouldn’t be surprising if they were active in the pitching market at the trade deadline. After all, you can never have too much pitching depth, and the Dodgers surely know that.
One move I like is calling up Dalton Rushing, the team's top prospect. He won’t play every day, which is unconventional for a young player as highly thought of as Rushing. But he’ll spell Will Smith during the regular season and keep him fresh for the postseason run.
2. New York Yankees
I predicted that the Yankees wouldn’t make the playoffs to start the regular season and, well, whoops. That looks like a huge mistake by me.
The Yankees, even after losing Juan Soto, rank third in baseball in total runs (305). Max Fried and Carlos Rodon both belong in the Cy Young conversation. The rotation otherwise had questions, but Ryan Yarbrough has been a revelation to the tune of a 3.06 ERA in 12 appearances (four starts), and looks like one of the most savvy pre-Opening Day pickups in recent memory.
The biggest question with the Yankees, however, is in the bullpen. Devin Williams was acquired to bring a superstar presence to the ninth inning, but he struggled and at one point was removed from the closer role. They are trying to work him back into the ninth inning, but if his struggles continue, that should be a focal point for Brian Cashman and the front office.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
I mentioned the Phillies as a team I strongly believe in on The Baseball Insiders, and I’m sticking with it.
The talent on offense — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, others — is obvious. Their starting rotation has been the primary reason for the strong start, as they are getting contributions from many names. But arguably no pitcher has been better than Zack Wheeler recently, with the right-hander posting a 1.08 ERA in his last five starts.
I’ve long bought stock in the Phillies, and I’m going to keep doing it. They are absolutely a threat to the Dodgers in the National League, especially with Los Angeles so banged up to start the season.
4. Detroit Tigers
If I could buy stock in the Detroit Tigers (spoiler: I can’t), I absolutely would. I think they are the biggest threat to the Yankees in the American League.
They can score (288 runs rank fourth in baseball). Their 3.22 ERA is tied for fourth best in baseball. They have a manager in AJ Hinch who has extensive postseason experience. They have one of the top pitching coaches in baseball in Chris Fetter, and the team’s assistant pitching coach, Robin Lund, is regarded by many within the game as one of the best and as a future pitching coach.
Part of me wonders what this team would look like with Alex Bregman, who was a serious target for the Tigers in the offseason. But even without Bregman, they are one of baseball’s best teams, and a franchise that is absolutely here to stay.
5. Chicago Cubs
Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong have transformed the Cubs’ offense. Tucker is every bit of a superstar, the type of player franchises build rosters around. Crow-Armstrong is maximizing every tool in his body and looks like a force at both the plate and in the outfield.
The pitching side is where the Cubs have plenty of questions and word is, they will be looking for pitching help (both in the rotation and bullpen) at the trade deadline. It’s unclear how much flexibility the Ricketts family will give Jed Hoyer to operate with in late July. But with Tucker unsigned after this season, they would be very wise to green light a big move or two.
6. Seattle Mariners
I want to believe in the Mariners. Trust me, I really do. But I have a hard time believing this offense is sustainable, especially Jorge Polanco’s breakout season. Still, his .274/.327/.541 slash line with 10 home runs has been a revelation for the Mariners, and his $7.75 million contract looks like a bargain.
Cal Raleigh, meanwhile, looks like an MVP candidate. New manager Dan Wilson has rejuvenated a once stagnant Mariners offense, which has picked up the slack for a rotation that ranks 19th in baseball with a 3.98 ERA.
Maybe I’m being too harsh on the Mariners. But that division still has the Astros and Rangers who, while they have their own problems, have a history of performing well late in the season. The Astros still have Jose Altuve, Framber Valdez, Yordan Alvarez, Hunter Brown and Isaac Paredes – and not only have they kept Houston in the hunt, I believe they’ll help the Astros win the division outright.